Football · England Southern Premier League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Sholing vs Plymouth Parkway

Team pages: Sholing · Plymouth Parkway

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Sholing1.62

Plymouth Parkway1.56

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Sholing Draw Plymouth Parkway

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sholing 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWDLLW

Plymouth Parkway 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Sholing 3–2–1 Plymouth Parkway (6 last)

Sholing4-2Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway1-1Sholing
Plymouth Parkway3-1Sholing
Sholing2-1Plymouth Parkway
Sholing1-1Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway1-3Sholing

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sholing 1493 · Plymouth Parkway 1561

	Sholing	Draw	Plymouth Parkway
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth Parkway (rating 1493 vs 1561).
H2H favours Sholing: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sholing	Plymouth Parkway
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	3.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 2	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +13’	2.30	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sholing 3–2–1 Plymouth Parkway

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Southern Premier League South	Sholing	4-2	Plymouth Parkway
22/11/25 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	1-1	Sholing
12/04/25 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	3-1	Sholing
14/12/24 England Southern Premier League South	Sholing	2-1	Plymouth Parkway
30/03/24 England Southern Premier League South	Sholing	1-1 HT 0-0	Plymouth Parkway
15/08/23 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	1-3	Sholing

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	6	4	2	0	12	6	14
2	Plymouth Parkway	6	4	1	1	17	6	13
3	Hanworth Villa	6	4	1	1	11	3	13
4	Frome Town	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
5	Taunton Town	6	4	0	2	19	14	12
6	Chichester City	6	4	0	2	11	7	12
7	Chertsey Town	6	3	1	2	12	10	10
8	Berkhamsted	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
9	Poole Town	6	3	0	3	7	9	9
10	Evesham United	6	3	0	3	11	14	9
11	Bath City	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
12	Yate Town	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
13	Gosport Borough	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
14	Basingstoke	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
15	Sholing	6	2	1	3	6	9	7
16	Chippenham Town	6	2	1	3	7	12	7
17	Bracknell Town	6	2	1	3	8	14	7
18	Wimborne Town	6	1	3	2	4	4	6
19	Gloucester	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
20	Hanwell Town	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
21	Havant and W	6	1	1	4	7	12	4
22	Malvern Town	6	0	2	4	7	16	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sholing	Plymouth Parkway
Gosport Borough	1-0 W	6-3 W
Bracknell Town	1-3 L	7-0 W
Hanwell Town	0-0 D	2-0 W
Poole Town	1-0 W	2-0 W
Bath City	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Plymouth Parkway (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sholing

LLDWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-4	–	–	L
15/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
11/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	Dorchester England Southern Premier League South	–	4-0	–	–	W
18/04	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/04	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Plymouth Parkway

WDWWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
08/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	7-0	–	–	W
25/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	6-3	–	–	W
18/04	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/04	Tiverton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sholing vs Plymouth Parkway?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sholing win (39%). Probabilities: Sholing 39%, draw 25%, Plymouth Parkway 36%.

How many goals are expected in Sholing vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Sholing 1.62 · Plymouth Parkway 1.56), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sholing vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.