Football · England Southern Premier League South · 15/09, 20:45

Prediction: Berkhamsted vs Uxbridge

Team pages: Berkhamsted · Uxbridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Berkhamsted1.54

Uxbridge1.37

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Berkhamsted Draw Uxbridge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Berkhamsted 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLWWD

Uxbridge 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDWWDW

Head-to-head

Berkhamsted 1–1 Uxbridge (2 last)

Berkhamsted3-0Uxbridge
Uxbridge2-1Berkhamsted

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Berkhamsted 1527 · Uxbridge 1585

	Berkhamsted	Draw	Uxbridge
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Uxbridge (rating 1527 vs 1585).
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Berkhamsted	Uxbridge
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 3.7	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	1.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.77

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:35 +8’	2.38	3.60	2.40
22:04 +15’	2.15▼	3.60	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:25 +53’	2.29	3.30	2.74
18:45 +28’	2.31▲	3.36▲	2.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Berkhamsted 1–0–1 Uxbridge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/01/26 England Southern Premier League South	Berkhamsted	3-0 HT 1-0	Uxbridge
09/09/25 England Southern Premier League South	Uxbridge	2-1 HT 2-1	Berkhamsted

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	7	5	2	0	17	6	17
2	Plymouth Parkway	7	5	1	1	20	7	16
3	Chertsey Town	7	4	1	2	17	10	13
4	Hanworth Villa	7	4	1	2	13	6	13
5	Frome Town	7	4	1	2	12	6	13
6	Taunton Town	7	4	0	3	20	17	12
7	Chichester City	7	4	0	3	11	12	12
8	Poole Town	7	4	0	3	8	9	12
9	Bath City	7	3	2	2	8	6	11
10	Yate Town	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
11	Gosport Borough	7	3	1	3	10	8	10
12	Berkhamsted	7	3	1	3	9	10	10
13	Evesham United	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
14	Wimborne Town	7	2	3	2	6	4	9
15	Basingstoke	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
16	Sholing	7	2	1	4	7	12	7
17	Chippenham Town	7	2	1	4	7	14	7
18	Bracknell Town	7	2	1	4	8	16	7
19	Gloucester	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
20	Hanwell Town	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
21	Havant and W	7	1	1	5	7	13	4
22	Malvern Town	7	0	2	5	7	21	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Berkhamsted	Uxbridge
Chippenham Town	2-1 W	2-0 W
Poole Town	2-3 L	3-3 D
Taunton Town	1-2 L	5-4 W
Havant and W	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Uxbridge (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Berkhamsted

LWLWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
08/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/04	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
25/04	Weymouth England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Uxbridge

LDDWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
31/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-4	–	–	W
15/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
08/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	14	1	W
25/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-2	3-3	2	0	D
18/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
11/04	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Berkhamsted vs Uxbridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Berkhamsted win (41%). Probabilities: Berkhamsted 41%, draw 26%, Uxbridge 33%.

How many goals are expected in Berkhamsted vs Uxbridge?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Berkhamsted 1.54 · Uxbridge 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Berkhamsted vs Uxbridge?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.