Football · England Southern Premier League South · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Evesham United vs Yate Town

Team pages: Evesham United · Yate Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Evesham United1.48

Yate Town1.32

1X2

41% 27% 33%

Evesham United Draw Yate Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Evesham United 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLWLL

Yate Town 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLDDLD

Head-to-head

Evesham United 0–2 Yate Town (2 last)

Yate Town3-0Evesham United
Evesham United0-1Yate Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Evesham United 1418 · Yate Town 1467

	Evesham United	Draw	Yate Town
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yate Town (rating 1418 vs 1467).
H2H favours Yate Town: 2-0-0.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Evesham United	Yate Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	2 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:41 +16’	2.20	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Evesham United 0–0–2 Yate Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Yate Town	3-0	Evesham United
27/12/25 England Southern Premier League South	Evesham United	0-1 HT 0-1	Yate Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	15	10	3	2	29	12	33
2	Poole Town	16	10	2	4	28	17	32
3	Hanworth Villa	16	9	4	3	32	19	31
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Bath City	15	9	2	4	21	12	29
6	Chichester City	16	9	1	6	29	26	28
7	Chertsey Town	15	7	5	3	33	24	26
8	Gosport Borough	16	7	3	6	25	22	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Frome Town	15	5	5	5	24	21	20
11	Taunton Town	13	6	1	6	32	26	19
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Hanwell Town	15	4	5	6	20	22	17
14	Sholing	13	4	4	5	18	20	16
15	Basingstoke	16	4	4	8	25	32	16
16	Evesham United	16	5	1	10	21	34	16
17	Yate Town	15	3	6	6	17	28	15
18	Chippenham Town	15	4	3	8	17	29	15
19	Bracknell Town	17	4	3	10	19	37	15
20	Malvern Town	15	4	2	9	22	38	14
21	Gloucester	13	2	6	5	18	22	12
22	Havant and W	16	3	3	10	20	33	12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Evesham United	Yate Town
Taunton Town	1-4 L	1-4 L
Uxbridge	0-1 L	0-2 L
Berkhamsted	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Evesham United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Evesham United

DWLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/11	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	1-4	2-4	7	3	L
31/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
20/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-2	13	4	L
17/10	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
13/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
10/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
03/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D

Yate Town

LWLDLLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
27/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
20/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
13/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
10/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
29/09	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Evesham United vs Yate Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Evesham United win (41%). Probabilities: Evesham United 41%, draw 27%, Yate Town 33%.

How many goals are expected in Evesham United vs Yate Town?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Evesham United 1.48 · Yate Town 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Evesham United vs Yate Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.