Football · England Southern Premier League South · 18/11, 20:45

Prediction: Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town

Team pages: Gosport Borough · Chertsey Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Gosport Borough1.62

Chertsey Town1.89

1X2

33% 24% 44%

Gosport Borough Draw Chertsey Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gosport Borough 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLWWLL

Chertsey Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Gosport Borough 2–1–1 Chertsey Town (4 last)

Gosport Borough2-2Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town1-3Gosport Borough
Gosport Borough0-2Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town0-2Gosport Borough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gosport Borough 1477 · Chertsey Town 1543

	Gosport Borough	Draw	Chertsey Town
Our model	32%	24%	44%
Market	33%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chertsey Town (rating 1477 vs 1543).
H2H favours Gosport Borough: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gosport Borough	Chertsey Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.80

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +11’	2.75	3.80	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gosport Borough 2–1–1 Chertsey Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England Southern Premier League South	Gosport Borough	2-2	Chertsey Town
20/09/25 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	1-3	Gosport Borough
01/03/25 England Southern Premier League South	Gosport Borough	0-2 HT 0-1	Chertsey Town
23/11/24 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	0-2	Gosport Borough

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	16	11	3	2	33	14	36
2	Hanworth Villa	17	10	4	3	35	21	34
3	Poole Town	17	10	2	5	28	22	32
4	Plymouth Parkway	16	9	2	5	33	21	29
5	Chertsey Town	16	8	5	3	35	25	29
6	Bath City	16	9	2	5	21	15	29
7	Chichester City	17	9	1	7	30	28	28
8	Taunton Town	15	8	1	6	40	26	25
9	Gosport Borough	17	7	3	7	28	27	24
10	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
11	Frome Town	16	5	5	6	26	24	20
12	Hanwell Town	17	5	5	7	24	27	20
13	Basingstoke	17	5	4	8	27	33	19
14	Evesham United	18	6	1	11	26	40	19
15	Sholing	15	4	6	5	19	21	18
16	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
17	Yate Town	17	4	6	7	20	32	18
18	Gloucester	15	3	7	5	21	24	16
19	Chippenham Town	17	4	4	9	19	32	16
20	Havant and W	17	4	3	10	24	33	15
21	Bracknell Town	17	4	3	10	19	37	15
22	Malvern Town	16	4	2	10	24	41	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gosport Borough	Chertsey Town
Evesham United	3-5 L	2-0 W
Chippenham Town	0-2 L	2-2 D
Hanwell Town	3-2 W	1-1 D
Bracknell Town	3-1 W	2-1 W
Basingstoke	4-0 W	4-3 W
Poole Town	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gosport Borough

DDLWWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-5	–	–	L
07/11	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
31/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
27/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
17/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	3-0	4-0	3	6	W
10/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
07/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
30/09	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
19/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Chertsey Town

WDLDDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
03/11	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	4-3	–	–	W
27/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
20/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
13/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
10/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chertsey Town win (44%). Probabilities: Gosport Borough 33%, draw 24%, Chertsey Town 44%.

How many goals are expected in Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Gosport Borough 1.62 · Chertsey Town 1.89), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.