Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 29/08, 16:00
Prediction: Chatham Town vs Wingate & Finchley
Team pages: Chatham Town · Wingate & Finchley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Chatham Town1.93
Wingate & Finchley1.03
1X2
Chatham Town
Draw
Wingate & Finchley
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Chatham Town
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Wingate & Finchley
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chatham Town
4–1–1
Wingate & Finchley
(6 last)
- Chatham Town4-0Wingate & Finchley
- Wingate & Finchley0-3Chatham Town
- Chatham Town3-1Wingate & Finchley
- Wingate & Finchley1-1Chatham Town
- Chatham Town1-0Wingate & Finchley
- Wingate & Finchley4-2Chatham Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chatham Town 1523 · Wingate & Finchley 1458
| Chatham Town | Draw | Wingate & Finchley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chatham Town (rating 1523 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Chatham Town: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chatham Town | Wingate & Finchley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/50/25% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.3 | 0.6 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chatham Town 4–1–1 Wingate & Finchley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 England Isthmian Premier Division | Chatham Town | 4-0 | Wingate & Finchley |
| 06/09/25 England Isthmian Premier Division | Wingate & Finchley | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Chatham Town |
| 11/01/25 England Isthmian Premier Division | Chatham Town | 3-1 | Wingate & Finchley |
| 19/11/24 England Isthmian Premier Division | Wingate & Finchley | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Chatham Town |
| 05/10/24 England FA Trophy | Chatham Town | 1-0 | Wingate & Finchley |
| 06/02/24 England Isthmian Premier Division | Wingate & Finchley | 4-2 | Chatham Town |
Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carshalton Ath | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Enfield Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Welling | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Dartford | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Aveley | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Leatherhead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Lewes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Dulwich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Ramsgate | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Maldon Tiptree FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 13 | St Albans | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 14 | Burgess Hill Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Cray Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Wingate & Finchley | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 17 | Brentwood Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 18 | Cheshunt | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 | Whitehawk | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 20 | AFC Whyteleafe | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| 22 | Three Bridges | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chatham Town | Wingate & Finchley |
|---|---|---|
| Whitehawk | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Dulwich | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| St Albans | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Lewes | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Aveley | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chatham Town (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chatham Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Billericay Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Potters Bar Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/04 | Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/04 | Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Wingate & Finchley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 10/08 | Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 06/04 | St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 28/03 | Welling England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chatham Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chatham Town win (58%). Probabilities: Chatham Town 58%, draw 23%, Wingate & Finchley 19%.
How many goals are expected in Chatham Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Chatham Town 1.93 · Wingate & Finchley 1.03), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chatham Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.