Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 29/08, 16:00
Prediction: Aveley vs Lewes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.65Total
Aveley2.31
Lewes1.34
1X2
Aveley
Draw
Lewes
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Aveley
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Lewes
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aveley
3–1–1
Lewes
(5 last)
- Lewes1-6Aveley
- Aveley3-0Lewes
- Aveley2-0Lewes
- Lewes1-1Aveley
- Aveley2-4Lewes
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aveley 1555 · Lewes 1482
| Aveley | Draw | Lewes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aveley (rating 1555 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Aveley: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aveley | Lewes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0 | 0.2 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/100/0% | 17/17/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 2 | 2.7 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 1.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aveley 3–1–1 Lewes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 England Isthmian Premier Division | Lewes | 1-6 HT 1-2 | Aveley |
| 18/10/25 England Isthmian Premier Division | Aveley | 3-0 | Lewes |
| 18/02/23 England Isthmian Premier Division | Aveley | 2-0 | Lewes |
| 01/11/22 England Isthmian Premier Division | Lewes | 1-1 | Aveley |
| 03/08/21 Club Friendly List | Aveley | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Lewes |
Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carshalton Ath | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Dartford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Leatherhead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Eastbourne Borough | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Dulwich | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Enfield Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Welling | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | St Albans | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Burgess Hill Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Aveley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 12 | Lewes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Ramsgate | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Brentwood Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Maldon Tiptree FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cray Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 | Wingate & Finchley | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Cheshunt | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 19 | Whitehawk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | AFC Whyteleafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 22 | Three Bridges | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aveley | Lewes |
|---|---|---|
| Whitehawk | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Wingate & Finchley | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| St Albans | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Chatham Town | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Aveley (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aveley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 29/04 | Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/04 | Hashtag United England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Lewes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 06/04 | Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 03/04 | Potters Bar Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 28/03 | Canvey Island England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-2 | 2-2 | 14 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aveley vs Lewes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aveley win (58%). Probabilities: Aveley 58%, draw 21%, Lewes 21%.
How many goals are expected in Aveley vs Lewes?
The model expects 3.65 goals (Aveley 2.31 · Lewes 1.34), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Aveley vs Lewes?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.