Football · England Southern Premier League South · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Chertsey Town vs Yate Town

Team pages: Chertsey Town · Yate Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Chertsey Town1.65

Yate Town1.17

1X2

48% 26% 27%

Chertsey Town Draw Yate Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chertsey Town 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Yate Town 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chertsey Town 0–2–0 Yate Town (2 last)

Chertsey Town2-2Yate Town
Yate Town0-0Chertsey Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chertsey Town 1558 · Yate Town 1558

	Chertsey Town	Draw	Yate Town
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chertsey Town	Yate Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 4.5	3.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:48 +16’	1.85	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chertsey Town 0–2–0 Yate Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	2-2	Yate Town
23/08/25 England Southern Premier League South	Yate Town	0-0	Chertsey Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Frome Town	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Chertsey Town	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Uxbridge	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Hanworth Villa	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Plymouth Parkway	2	1	1	0	8	1	4
6	Hanwell Town	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Bath City	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Yate Town	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Taunton Town	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
10	Chichester City	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Poole Town	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Sholing	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Berkhamsted	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
14	Evesham United	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
15	Bracknell Town	2	1	0	1	3	9	3
16	Chippenham Town	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Malvern Town	2	0	1	1	4	7	1
18	Gloucester	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Gosport Borough	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
20	Basingstoke	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
21	Wimborne Town	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
22	Havant and W	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chertsey Town	Yate Town
Gloucester	1-0 W	2-1 W
Poole Town	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Yate Town (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chertsey Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	2-0	4-1	8	5	W
08/08	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/07	Westfield UK Friendlies	2-2	4-2	5	3	W
28/07	Chesham UK Friendlies	2-0	2-1	3	0	W
25/07	Hampton & Richmond UK Friendlies	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
21/07	Wealdstone UK Friendlies	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/04	Hungerford Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Weymouth England Southern Premier League South	–	1-5	–	–	L
11/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-1	3	7	W

Yate Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Leamington UK Friendlies	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
25/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/04	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/04	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
03/04	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/03	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
24/03	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	2-1	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chertsey Town vs Yate Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chertsey Town win (48%). Probabilities: Chertsey Town 48%, draw 26%, Yate Town 27%.

How many goals are expected in Chertsey Town vs Yate Town?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Chertsey Town 1.65 · Yate Town 1.17), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chertsey Town vs Yate Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.