Football · England Southern Premier League South · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Poole Town vs Basingstoke

Team pages: Poole Town · Basingstoke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Poole Town1.93

Basingstoke1.19

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Poole Town Draw Basingstoke

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Poole Town 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDDWWL

Basingstoke 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Poole Town 4–2 Basingstoke (6 last)

Basingstoke1-2Poole Town
Poole Town1-0Basingstoke
Poole Town1-0Basingstoke
Basingstoke1-3Poole Town
Poole Town0-1Basingstoke
Basingstoke4-2Poole Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Poole Town 1543 · Basingstoke 1473

	Poole Town	Draw	Basingstoke
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poole Town (rating 1543 vs 1473).
H2H favours Poole Town: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Poole Town	Basingstoke
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	2.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/25/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +2’	1.67	3.70	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Poole Town 4–0–2 Basingstoke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	1-2	Poole Town
22/11/25 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	1-0	Basingstoke
18/01/25 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Basingstoke
09/11/24 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	1-3	Poole Town
17/02/24 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	0-1	Basingstoke
14/10/23 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	4-2	Poole Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Frome Town	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Chertsey Town	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Uxbridge	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Hanworth Villa	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Plymouth Parkway	2	1	1	0	8	1	4
6	Hanwell Town	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Bath City	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Yate Town	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Taunton Town	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
10	Chichester City	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Poole Town	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Sholing	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Berkhamsted	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
14	Evesham United	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
15	Bracknell Town	2	1	0	1	3	9	3
16	Chippenham Town	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Malvern Town	2	0	1	1	4	7	1
18	Gloucester	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Gosport Borough	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
20	Basingstoke	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
21	Wimborne Town	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
22	Havant and W	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Poole Town	Basingstoke
Sholing	0-1 L	1-0 W
Evesham United	1-1 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Poole Town

DDLWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
14/07	Eastleigh Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
29/04	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
25/04	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	2-1	3-3	2	0	D
18/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/04	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/04	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/03	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D

Basingstoke

WWWLWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-2	9	3	L
08/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	2-4	–	–	L
01/08	Hampton & Richmond Club Friendly List	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/07	Binfield Club Friendly List	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
21/07	Chesham UK Friendlies	2-4	2-6	4	0	L
14/07	Slough UK Friendlies	1-0	4-2	3	1	W
25/04	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Tiverton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/04	Hungerford Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/04	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poole Town vs Basingstoke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Poole Town win (54%). Probabilities: Poole Town 54%, draw 24%, Basingstoke 22%.

How many goals are expected in Poole Town vs Basingstoke?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Poole Town 1.93 · Basingstoke 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Poole Town vs Basingstoke?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.