Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 28/08, 20:45

Prediction: Burgess Hill Town vs Dartford

Team pages: Burgess Hill Town · Dartford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Burgess Hill Town1.4

Dartford1.83

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Burgess Hill Town Draw Dartford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Burgess Hill Town 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWDD

Dartford 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Burgess Hill Town 1–1–3 Dartford (5 last)

Burgess Hill Town2-1Dartford
Dartford3-3Burgess Hill Town
Burgess Hill Town0-1Dartford
Burgess Hill Town1-2Dartford
Dartford3-1Burgess Hill Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burgess Hill Town 1490 · Dartford 1547

	Burgess Hill Town	Draw	Dartford
Our model	29%	25%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dartford (rating 1490 vs 1547).
H2H favours Dartford: 3-1-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burgess Hill Town	Dartford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	2.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	1.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 8	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +4’	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Burgess Hill Town 1–1–3 Dartford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	2-1	Dartford
30/09/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Dartford	3-3 HT 2-0	Burgess Hill Town
14/10/17 England FA Cup Qualification	Burgess Hill Town	0-1	Dartford
10/01/15 England FA Trophy	Burgess Hill Town	1-2	Dartford
25/10/14 England FA Cup Qualification	Dartford	3-1	Burgess Hill Town

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carshalton Ath	4	4	0	0	8	2	12
2	Enfield Town	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
3	Welling	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
4	Chatham Town	4	3	0	1	10	5	9
5	Dartford	4	3	0	1	6	6	9
6	Aveley	4	2	1	1	10	6	7
7	Eastbourne Borough	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
7	Leatherhead	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
9	Lewes	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
10	Dulwich	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
11	Ramsgate	4	2	0	2	10	6	6
12	Maldon Tiptree FC	4	2	0	2	6	9	6
13	St Albans	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
14	Burgess Hill Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
15	Cray Wanderers	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
16	Wingate & Finchley	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
17	Brentwood Town	4	1	0	3	5	7	3
18	Cheshunt	4	0	3	1	1	3	3
19	Whitehawk	4	0	1	3	2	8	1
20	AFC Whyteleafe	4	0	1	3	3	10	1
21	Stanway Rovers	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
22	Three Bridges	4	0	0	4	6	14	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burgess Hill Town	Dartford
Brentwood Town	0-2 L	1-0 W
Chichester City	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burgess Hill Town

LWWLLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-2	–	–	W
18/04	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/04	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/04	Chichester City England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
04/04	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
28/03	Billericay Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L

Dartford

WDWWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/04	Cray Valley Paper Mills England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
18/04	Chichester City England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
11/04	Canvey Island England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
06/04	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
04/04	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-2	6	1	D
28/03	Hashtag United England Isthmian Premier Division	5-0	7-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burgess Hill Town vs Dartford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dartford win (47%). Probabilities: Burgess Hill Town 29%, draw 24%, Dartford 47%.

How many goals are expected in Burgess Hill Town vs Dartford?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Burgess Hill Town 1.4 · Dartford 1.83), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Burgess Hill Town vs Dartford?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.