Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton Ath

Team pages: Wingate & Finchley · Carshalton Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Wingate & Finchley1.83

Carshalton Ath1.73

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Wingate & Finchley Draw Carshalton Ath

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Wingate & Finchley 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWLWW

Carshalton Ath 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLLLD

Head-to-head

Wingate & Finchley 2–2–2 Carshalton Ath (6 last)

Carshalton Ath2-0Wingate & Finchley
Carshalton Ath4-1Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley2-2Carshalton Ath
Wingate & Finchley3-2Carshalton Ath
Carshalton Ath0-0Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley2-1Carshalton Ath

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wingate & Finchley 1526 · Carshalton Ath 1486

	Wingate & Finchley	Draw	Carshalton Ath
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wingate & Finchley (rating 1526 vs 1486).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wingate & Finchley	Carshalton Ath
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +8’	2.25	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wingate & Finchley 2–2–2 Carshalton Ath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Carshalton Ath	2-0	Wingate & Finchley
21/03/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Carshalton Ath	4-1	Wingate & Finchley
06/12/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	2-2 HT 1-2	Carshalton Ath
02/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Wingate & Finchley	3-2	Carshalton Ath
30/08/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Carshalton Ath	0-0	Wingate & Finchley
05/11/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	2-1 HT 2-1	Carshalton Ath

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	33	16	28
2	Welling	12	9	0	3	24	12	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Dartford	12	8	0	4	19	14	24
5	Carshalton Ath	14	7	1	6	21	24	22
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	11	4	5	2	20	15	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	11	5	2	4	20	16	17
11	Wingate & Finchley	11	5	2	4	20	21	17
12	Chatham Town	10	5	0	5	19	14	15
13	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
14	AFC Whyteleafe	13	4	3	6	20	22	15
15	Cheshunt	12	3	6	3	12	15	15
16	Aveley	12	4	2	6	19	19	14
17	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
19	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
20	Three Bridges	12	2	3	7	23	34	9
21	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	12	32	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	1	1	9	9	30	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wingate & Finchley	Carshalton Ath
Ramsgate	2-0 W	3-2 W
Dartford	1-2 L	0-3 L
Enfield Town	1-4 L	1-2 L
Dulwich	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wingate & Finchley (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wingate & Finchley

DWWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
26/09	Real Bedford England FA Trophy	–	3-0	–	–	W
14/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D

Carshalton Ath

WLLLWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
12/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/10	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-4	0	3	L
03/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
19/09	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/09	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
31/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton Ath?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wingate & Finchley win (40%). Probabilities: Wingate & Finchley 40%, draw 24%, Carshalton Ath 36%.

How many goals are expected in Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton Ath?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Wingate & Finchley 1.83 · Carshalton Ath 1.73), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton Ath?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.