Football · England Southern Premier League South · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Gloucester vs Malvern Town

Team pages: Gloucester · Malvern Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Gloucester2.29

Malvern Town1.23

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Gloucester Draw Malvern Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gloucester 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDWLDD

Malvern Town 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Gloucester 0–1 Malvern Town (1 last)

Malvern Town5-2Gloucester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gloucester 1498 · Malvern Town 1466

	Gloucester	Draw	Malvern Town
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gloucester	Malvern Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.3 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:06 +16’	1.48	4.33	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gloucester 0–0–1 Malvern Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 England Southern Premier League South	Malvern Town	5-2 HT 0-1	Gloucester

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	15	10	3	2	29	12	33
2	Poole Town	16	10	2	4	28	17	32
3	Hanworth Villa	16	9	4	3	32	19	31
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Bath City	15	9	2	4	21	12	29
6	Chichester City	16	9	1	6	29	26	28
7	Chertsey Town	15	7	5	3	33	24	26
8	Gosport Borough	16	7	3	6	25	22	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Frome Town	15	5	5	5	24	21	20
11	Taunton Town	13	6	1	6	32	26	19
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Hanwell Town	15	4	5	6	20	22	17
14	Sholing	13	4	4	5	18	20	16
15	Basingstoke	16	4	4	8	25	32	16
16	Evesham United	16	5	1	10	21	34	16
17	Yate Town	15	3	6	6	17	28	15
18	Chippenham Town	15	4	3	8	17	29	15
19	Bracknell Town	17	4	3	10	19	37	15
20	Malvern Town	15	4	2	9	22	38	14
21	Gloucester	13	2	6	5	18	22	12
22	Havant and W	16	3	3	10	20	33	12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gloucester	Malvern Town
Yate Town	1-1 D	3-2 W
Basingstoke	1-1 D	1-4 L
Havant and W	3-3 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Malvern Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gloucester

WDLDLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-2	5	2	D
27/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-5	5	3	L
12/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W

Malvern Town

LLWLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	1-3	2-4	9	4	L
20/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
10/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	0-1	5-2	7	3	W
12/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gloucester vs Malvern Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gloucester win (60%). Probabilities: Gloucester 60%, draw 21%, Malvern Town 19%.

How many goals are expected in Gloucester vs Malvern Town?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Gloucester 2.29 · Malvern Town 1.23), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gloucester vs Malvern Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.