Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Dartford vs Welling
Team pages: Dartford · Welling
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Dartford1.9
Welling0.98
1X2
Dartford
Draw
Welling
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dartford
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Welling
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dartford
3–2–1
Welling
(6 last)
- Welling0-1Dartford
- Dartford3-1Welling
- Dartford1-1Welling
- Welling0-1Dartford
- Dartford2-3Welling
- Welling2-2Dartford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dartford 1581 · Welling 1495
| Dartford | Draw | Welling | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dartford (rating 1581 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Dartford: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dartford | Welling | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/75/13% | 38/25/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4 | 3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dartford 3–2–1 Welling
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 England Isthmian Premier Division | Welling | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Dartford |
| 01/11/25 England Isthmian Premier Division | Dartford | 3-1 | Welling |
| 30/12/23 England National League South | Dartford | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Welling |
| 26/12/23 England National League South | Welling | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Dartford |
| 16/09/23 England FA Cup Qualification | Dartford | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Welling |
| 04/02/23 England National League South | Welling | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Dartford |
Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carshalton Ath | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Dartford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Leatherhead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Eastbourne Borough | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Dulwich | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Enfield Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Welling | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | St Albans | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Burgess Hill Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Aveley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 12 | Lewes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Ramsgate | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Brentwood Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Maldon Tiptree FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cray Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 | Wingate & Finchley | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Cheshunt | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 19 | Whitehawk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | AFC Whyteleafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 22 | Three Bridges | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dartford | Welling |
|---|---|---|
| Billericay Town | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Folkestone Invicta | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dartford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Ashford Utd UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Faversham Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Billericay Town UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Whitstable Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | Sutton Athletic Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Folkestone Invicta Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 07/07 | Ebbsfleet United UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
Welling
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 11/08 | Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-4 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Folkestone Invicta Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Billericay Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 25/07 | Buckhurst Hill Club Friendly List |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | Punjab Utd Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | Braintree Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Maidstone Utd UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Erith & Belvedere Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dartford vs Welling?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dartford win (58%). Probabilities: Dartford 58%, draw 23%, Welling 19%.
How many goals are expected in Dartford vs Welling?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Dartford 1.9 · Welling 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dartford vs Welling?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.