Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Gainsborough vs Cleethorpes Town

Team pages: Gainsborough · Cleethorpes Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Gainsborough1.4

Cleethorpes Town1.31

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Gainsborough Draw Cleethorpes Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gainsborough 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWLDW

Cleethorpes Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Gainsborough 2–1–1 Cleethorpes Town (4 last)

Gainsborough2-0Cleethorpes Town
Cleethorpes Town0-1Gainsborough
Cleethorpes Town5-0Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-0Cleethorpes Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gainsborough 1504 · Cleethorpes Town 1522

	Gainsborough	Draw	Cleethorpes Town
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gainsborough: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gainsborough	Cleethorpes Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.6	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +6’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +5’	2.35	3.08	2.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainsborough 2–1–1 Cleethorpes Town

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	2-0 HT 0-0	Cleethorpes Town
25/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Cleethorpes Town	0-1	Gainsborough
05/09/20 UK Friendlies	Cleethorpes Town	5-0 HT 5-0	Gainsborough
10/08/19 UK Friendlies	Gainsborough	0-0 HT 0-0	Cleethorpes Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	7	5	1	1	20	5	16
2	Avro FC	6	4	1	1	17	10	13
3	Gainsborough	7	4	1	2	14	7	13
4	Warrington Town	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
5	Guiseley	7	4	1	2	14	9	13
6	Redcar Athletic	6	3	3	0	10	2	12
7	Ashton Utd	7	3	2	2	10	6	11
8	Curzon Ashton	7	3	1	3	14	10	10
9	Bury	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
10	Lancaster City	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
11	Alfreton Town	6	3	0	3	10	6	9
12	Emley AFC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
13	Workington	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
14	Ilkeston	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
15	Hyde Utd	6	2	1	3	3	9	7
16	Leek Town	6	1	3	2	12	11	6
17	Warrington Rylands	6	2	0	4	6	10	6
18	Whitby	6	2	0	4	4	16	6
19	Bamber Bridge	6	1	2	3	6	15	5
20	Stockton Town	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
21	Quorn	6	0	3	3	6	13	3
22	FC United of Manchester	6	0	2	4	3	11	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gainsborough	Cleethorpes Town
Quorn	2-2 D	5-0 W
Alfreton Town	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cleethorpes Town (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gainsborough

LLLWLWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
18/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
11/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	7	1	L
18/04	Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
11/04	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Cleethorpes Town

LLDWWDWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
25/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-0	6	2	W
22/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
18/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	5-0	8	1	W
08/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/04	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
18/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
11/04	Hebburn Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gainsborough vs Cleethorpes Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gainsborough win (39%). Probabilities: Gainsborough 39%, draw 27%, Cleethorpes Town 34%.

How many goals are expected in Gainsborough vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Gainsborough 1.4 · Cleethorpes Town 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gainsborough vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.