Football · England Northern Premier League · 29/08, 16:00
Prediction: Workington vs Leek Town
Team pages: Workington · Leek Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Workington1.44
Leek Town1.38
1X2
Workington
Draw
Leek Town
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Workington
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Leek Town
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Workington
1–2–2
Leek Town
(5 last)
- Workington0-1Leek Town
- Leek Town2-2Workington
- Leek Town1-0Workington
- Workington1-1Leek Town
- Leek Town1-3Workington
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Workington 1501 · Leek Town 1533
| Workington | Draw | Leek Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Leek Town: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Workington | Leek Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.8 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Workington 1–2–2 Leek Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England Northern Premier League | Workington | 0-1 | Leek Town |
| 29/11/25 England Northern Premier League | Leek Town | 2-2 | Workington |
| 12/04/25 England Northern Premier League | Leek Town | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Workington |
| 17/08/24 England Northern Premier League | Workington | 1-1 | Leek Town |
| 09/11/19 England FA Trophy | Leek Town | 1-3 | Workington |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
| 2 | Guiseley | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Redcar Athletic | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Ashton Utd | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Gainsborough | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Bury | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Alfreton Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | Emley AFC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Curzon Ashton | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 12 | Workington | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Lancaster City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| 14 | Ilkeston | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 15 | Hyde Utd | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Warrington Rylands | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Whitby | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 6 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 19 | Bamber Bridge | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 20 | Stockton Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Quorn | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Workington
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 19/08 | Avro FC England Northern Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Guiseley England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/08 | Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Gainsborough England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Leek Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Warrington Town England Northern Premier League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
Leek Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/08 | Emley AFC England Northern Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/08 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 03/04 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Workington vs Leek Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Workington win (38%). Probabilities: Workington 38%, draw 27%, Leek Town 35%.
How many goals are expected in Workington vs Leek Town?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Workington 1.44 · Leek Town 1.38), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Workington vs Leek Town?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.