Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Lancaster City vs Workington

Team pages: Lancaster City · Workington

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Lancaster City1.64

Workington1.57

1X2

39% 26% 36%

Lancaster City Draw Workington

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lancaster City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLDWW

Workington 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLWWW

Head-to-head

Lancaster City 1–4–1 Workington (6 last)

Workington1-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City2-0Workington
Lancaster City1-1Workington
Workington1-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City1-1Workington
Workington2-1Lancaster City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lancaster City 1531 · Workington 1510

	Lancaster City	Draw	Workington
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	38%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lancaster City	Workington
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.3	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.52
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 3.01 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +5’	2.35	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +4’	2.05	3.52	3.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lancaster City 1–4–1 Workington

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-1	Lancaster City
25/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-0 HT 1-0	Workington
21/12/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	1-1 HT 1-0	Workington
13/08/24 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-1	Lancaster City
17/02/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	1-1	Workington
26/09/23 England Northern Premier League	Workington	2-1 HT 1-0	Lancaster City

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	7	5	1	1	20	5	16
2	Avro FC	6	4	1	1	17	10	13
3	Gainsborough	7	4	1	2	14	7	13
4	Warrington Town	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
5	Guiseley	7	4	1	2	14	9	13
6	Redcar Athletic	6	3	3	0	10	2	12
7	Ashton Utd	7	3	2	2	10	6	11
8	Curzon Ashton	7	3	1	3	14	10	10
9	Bury	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
10	Lancaster City	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
11	Alfreton Town	6	3	0	3	10	6	9
12	Emley AFC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
13	Workington	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
14	Ilkeston	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
15	Hyde Utd	6	2	1	3	3	9	7
16	Leek Town	6	1	3	2	12	11	6
17	Warrington Rylands	6	2	0	4	6	10	6
18	Whitby	6	2	0	4	4	16	6
19	Bamber Bridge	6	1	2	3	6	15	5
20	Stockton Town	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
21	Quorn	6	0	3	3	6	13	3
22	FC United of Manchester	6	0	2	4	3	11	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lancaster City	Workington
Guiseley	2-1 W	2-2 D
Redcar Athletic	1-3 L	0-1 L
Warrington Rylands	1-0 W	3-2 W
Ashton Utd	1-4 L	1-2 L
Gainsborough	3-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lancaster City

WDWLWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
15/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
08/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
25/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W

Workington

LWLLLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
25/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
19/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-4	9	2	L
15/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/04	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	3-2	5	9	W
11/04	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lancaster City vs Workington?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lancaster City win (39%). Probabilities: Lancaster City 39%, draw 26%, Workington 36%.

How many goals are expected in Lancaster City vs Workington?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Lancaster City 1.64 · Workington 1.57), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lancaster City vs Workington?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.