Football · England Northern Premier League · 01/09, 20:45

Prediction: Leek Town vs Warrington Town

Team pages: Leek Town · Warrington Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Leek Town1.5

Warrington Town1.52

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Leek Town Draw Warrington Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leek Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Warrington Town 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leek Town 1–1–0 Warrington Town (2 last)

Warrington Town1-1Leek Town
Leek Town3-1Warrington Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leek Town 1516 · Warrington Town 1483

	Leek Town	Draw	Warrington Town
Our model	36%	26%	37%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leek Town	Warrington Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	50/33/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:26 +9’	2.45	3.50	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leek Town 1–1–0 Warrington Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Leek Town
25/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	3-1 HT 1-0	Warrington Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	7	5	1	1	20	5	16
2	Avro FC	7	5	1	1	22	13	16
3	Redcar Athletic	7	4	3	0	13	4	15
4	Warrington Town	7	4	2	1	15	9	14
5	Bury	7	4	1	2	14	6	13
6	Gainsborough	7	4	1	2	14	7	13
7	Guiseley	7	4	1	2	14	9	13
8	Ashton Utd	7	3	2	2	10	6	11
9	Curzon Ashton	7	3	1	3	14	10	10
10	Emley AFC	7	2	4	1	8	7	10
11	Workington	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
12	Lancaster City	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
13	Alfreton Town	7	3	0	4	11	8	9
14	Warrington Rylands	7	3	0	4	8	11	9
15	Whitby	7	3	0	4	10	19	9
16	Hyde Utd	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
17	Ilkeston	7	2	1	4	5	16	7
18	Leek Town	7	1	3	3	14	14	6
19	Bamber Bridge	7	1	3	3	10	19	6
20	Stockton Town	7	1	1	5	7	15	4
21	Quorn	7	0	3	4	9	19	3
22	FC United of Manchester	7	0	2	5	5	14	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leek Town	Warrington Town
Workington	2-3 L	2-3 L
Emley AFC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Whitby	1-2 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Warrington Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leek Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	0	D
22/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
18/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	0	L
15/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
08/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
25/04	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
11/04	Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	2	W

Warrington Town

LLLWWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
15/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
08/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
18/04	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-3	1	9	L
06/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leek Town vs Warrington Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leek Town win (37%). Probabilities: Leek Town 37%, draw 26%, Warrington Town 37%.

How many goals are expected in Leek Town vs Warrington Town?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Leek Town 1.5 · Warrington Town 1.52), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leek Town vs Warrington Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.