Football · England Northern Premier League · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Workington vs Guiseley

Team pages: Workington · Guiseley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Workington1.19

Guiseley1.22

1X2

35% 28% 36%

Workington Draw Guiseley

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Workington 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLWWLL

Guiseley 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Workington 1–1–4 Guiseley (6 last)

Guiseley1-1Workington
Workington0-1Guiseley
Workington0-2Guiseley
Guiseley2-0Workington
Workington2-1Guiseley
Guiseley4-3Workington

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Workington 1470 · Guiseley 1550

	Workington	Draw	Guiseley
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1470 vs 1550).
H2H favours Guiseley: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Workington	Guiseley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/14/57%	63/13/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +5’	2.50	3.30	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Workington 1–1–4 Guiseley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-1	Workington
18/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	0-1	Guiseley
04/01/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	0-2	Guiseley
10/08/24 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	2-0	Workington
27/04/24 England Northern Premier League	Workington	2-1 HT 1-0	Guiseley
11/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	4-3 HT 3-2	Workington

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
2	Avro FC	2	2	0	0	8	2	6
3	Ashton Utd	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Warrington Town	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
5	Ilkeston	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
6	Bury	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Redcar Athletic	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Warrington Rylands	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
9	Gainsborough	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	Guiseley	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Curzon Ashton	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Alfreton Town	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Whitby	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
14	Lancaster City	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
15	Leek Town	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Emley AFC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	FC United of Manchester	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
18	Hyde Utd	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
19	Stockton Town	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
20	Workington	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
21	Quorn	2	0	0	2	1	7	0
22	Bamber Bridge	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Workington	Guiseley
Warrington Town	3-2 W	1-2 L
Ashton Utd	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Workington

LDLWLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/07	Carlisle Club Friendly List	4-0	5-0	–	–	W
14/07	Whitehaven Club Friendly List	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/07	Barrow UK Friendlies	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
25/04	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	3-2	5	9	W
11/04	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
06/04	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	9	8	D
04/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-3	4	1	L

Guiseley

LDLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
08/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/07	Pontefract Collieries UK Friendlies	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
24/07	Blackburn U23 Club Friendly List	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
21/07	Garforth Town UK Friendlies	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/07	Stocksbridge PS UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
14/07	Tadcaster Albion Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Harrogate Town UK Friendlies	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
18/04	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
11/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	2-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Workington vs Guiseley?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guiseley win (36%). Probabilities: Workington 35%, draw 28%, Guiseley 36%.

How many goals are expected in Workington vs Guiseley?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Workington 1.19 · Guiseley 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Workington vs Guiseley?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.