Football · England Northern Premier League · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley

Team pages: Curzon Ashton · Guiseley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Curzon Ashton1.39

Guiseley1.35

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Curzon Ashton Draw Guiseley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Curzon Ashton 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLWLLD

Guiseley 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLWDW

Head-to-head

Curzon Ashton 1–3–2 Guiseley (6 last)

Guiseley2-2Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton1-1Guiseley
Guiseley1-0Curzon Ashton
Guiseley1-0Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton1-0Guiseley
Curzon Ashton2-2Guiseley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Curzon Ashton 1468 · Guiseley 1568

	Curzon Ashton	Draw	Guiseley
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1468 vs 1568).
H2H favours Guiseley: 2-3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Curzon Ashton	Guiseley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +24’	2.38	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Curzon Ashton 1–3–2 Guiseley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/22 England National League North	Guiseley	2-2 HT 1-0	Curzon Ashton
21/08/21 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	1-1 HT 1-0	Guiseley
31/08/19 England National League North	Guiseley	1-0 HT 0-0	Curzon Ashton
26/03/19 England National League North	Guiseley	1-0 HT 0-0	Curzon Ashton
04/03/19 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	1-0 HT 1-0	Guiseley
30/07/16 Club Friendly List	Curzon Ashton	2-2 HT 2-1	Guiseley

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	4	3	1	0	10	2	10
2	Warrington Town	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	Gainsborough	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
4	Ashton Utd	4	3	0	1	7	2	9
5	Redcar Athletic	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
6	Guiseley	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
7	Bury	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Emley AFC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	Hyde Utd	4	2	1	1	3	4	7
10	Avro FC	3	2	0	1	8	5	6
11	Alfreton Town	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
12	Warrington Rylands	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
13	Ilkeston	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
13	Whitby	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
15	Curzon Ashton	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
16	Bamber Bridge	4	1	1	2	4	10	4
17	Lancaster City	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
18	Leek Town	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
19	Workington	3	0	1	2	2	5	1
20	Stockton Town	4	0	1	3	2	7	1
21	Quorn	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
22	FC United of Manchester	4	0	1	3	1	8	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Curzon Ashton

WLDDDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
14/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
11/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	4	L
08/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
01/08	Halifax UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
28/07	Irlam Club Friendly List	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/07	Clitheroe UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	9	0	D
25/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	0-2	3-3	3	7	D
18/04	Buxton England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
11/04	Chorley England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	8	W

Guiseley

LWWWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
15/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
08/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/07	Pontefract Collieries UK Friendlies	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
24/07	Blackburn U23 Club Friendly List	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
21/07	Garforth Town UK Friendlies	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/07	Stocksbridge PS UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
14/07	Tadcaster Albion Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Harrogate Town UK Friendlies	0-1	1-2	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Curzon Ashton win (37%). Probabilities: Curzon Ashton 37%, draw 27%, Guiseley 36%.

How many goals are expected in Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Curzon Ashton 1.39 · Guiseley 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.