Football · England Northern Premier League · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC United of Manchester vs Workington

Team pages: FC United of Manchester · Workington

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

FC United of Manchester1.63

Workington0.98

1X2

52% 26% 22%

FC United of Manchester Draw Workington

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC United of Manchester 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLDLL

Workington 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWWLLD

Head-to-head

FC United of Manchester 2–3–1 Workington (6 last)

FC United of Manchester2-2Workington
Workington0-2FC United of Manchester
Workington0-0FC United of Manchester
Workington0-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester2-2Workington
FC United of Manchester1-3Workington

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC United of Manchester 1452 · Workington 1476

	FC United of Manchester	Draw	Workington
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC United of Manchester: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC United of Manchester	Workington
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/11/56%	33/17/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.1	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +8’	1.70	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC United of Manchester 2–3–1 Workington

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/01/26 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	2-2 HT 0-0	Workington
07/10/25 England FA Trophy	Workington	0-2	FC United of Manchester
09/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	0-0 HT 0-0	FC United of Manchester
01/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	0-1	FC United of Manchester
16/11/24 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	2-2 HT 2-1	Workington
02/03/24 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	1-3	Workington

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	4	3	1	0	10	2	10
2	Warrington Town	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	Gainsborough	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
4	Ashton Utd	4	3	0	1	7	2	9
5	Redcar Athletic	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
6	Guiseley	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
7	Bury	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Emley AFC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	Hyde Utd	4	2	1	1	3	4	7
10	Avro FC	3	2	0	1	8	5	6
11	Alfreton Town	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
12	Warrington Rylands	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
13	Ilkeston	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
13	Whitby	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
15	Curzon Ashton	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
16	Bamber Bridge	4	1	1	2	4	10	4
17	Lancaster City	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
18	Leek Town	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
19	Workington	3	0	1	2	2	5	1
20	Stockton Town	4	0	1	3	2	7	1
21	Quorn	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
22	FC United of Manchester	4	0	1	3	1	8	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC United of Manchester	Workington
Gainsborough	0-3 L	0-2 L
Leek Town	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC United of Manchester

WWLWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
15/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
11/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
08/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
01/08	Macclesfield UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
24/07	Southport UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
20/07	Trafford Club Friendly List	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
18/07	Salford City UK Friendlies	0-1	1-4	1	1	L
14/07	Rochdale UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
11/07	Runcorn Linnets UK Friendlies	2-0	4-0	1	0	W

Workington

DLWLLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/07	Carlisle Club Friendly List	4-0	5-0	–	–	W
14/07	Whitehaven Club Friendly List	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/07	Barrow UK Friendlies	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
25/04	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	3-2	5	9	W
11/04	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
06/04	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	9	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC United of Manchester vs Workington?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC United of Manchester win (52%). Probabilities: FC United of Manchester 52%, draw 26%, Workington 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC United of Manchester vs Workington?

The model expects 2.61 goals (FC United of Manchester 1.63 · Workington 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC United of Manchester vs Workington?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.