Football · England Northern Premier League · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Whitby vs Ilkeston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Whitby1.19
Ilkeston1.15
1X2
Whitby
Draw
Ilkeston
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Whitby
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Ilkeston
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Whitby
4–1–1
Ilkeston
(6 last)
- Whitby1-0Ilkeston
- Ilkeston0-1Whitby
- Whitby0-0Ilkeston
- Ilkeston5-1Whitby
- Whitby3-0Ilkeston
- Ilkeston2-4Whitby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Whitby 1504 · Ilkeston 1524
| Whitby | Draw | Ilkeston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Whitby: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Whitby | Ilkeston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/38/38% | 38/38/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 2.8 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Whitby 4–1–1 Ilkeston
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/26 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ilkeston |
| 06/09/25 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Whitby |
| 14/12/24 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 0-0 | Ilkeston |
| 07/09/24 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 5-1 | Whitby |
| 01/01/24 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Ilkeston |
| 28/08/23 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 2-4 HT 0-3 | Whitby |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Avro FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ashton Utd | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Warrington Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Ilkeston | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Bury | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Redcar Athletic | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Warrington Rylands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Gainsborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Guiseley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Curzon Ashton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Alfreton Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Whitby | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Lancaster City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Emley AFC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | FC United of Manchester | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Hyde Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Workington | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 | Quorn | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 | Bamber Bridge | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Whitby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Guiseley England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Leek Town England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Guisborough Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Northallerton Town Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | West Auckland Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Bridlington Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Marske United Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Leek Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Ilkeston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Emley AFC England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Basford Utd UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Barwell Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Worksop Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/07 | Belper United FC Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/04 | Glossop North End England County Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Whitby vs Ilkeston?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Whitby win (37%). Probabilities: Whitby 37%, draw 28%, Ilkeston 35%.
How many goals are expected in Whitby vs Ilkeston?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Whitby 1.19 · Ilkeston 1.15), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Whitby vs Ilkeston?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.