Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Bury Town vs Needham Market

Team pages: Bury Town · Needham Market

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Bury Town1.77

Needham Market1.67

1X2

39% 25% 35%

Bury Town Draw Needham Market

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury Town 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Needham Market 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bury Town 1–1–2 Needham Market (4 last)

Bury Town1-1Needham Market
Needham Market4-2Bury Town
Bury Town3-1Needham Market
Needham Market3-1Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury Town 1576 · Needham Market 1521

	Bury Town	Draw	Needham Market
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury Town (rating 1576 vs 1521).
H2H favours Needham Market: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury Town	Needham Market
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	1.1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	3.05 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:23 +14’	2.00	3.50	3.05
12:28 +35’	2.30▲	3.40▼	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury Town 1–1–2 Needham Market

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Needham Market
22/10/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Needham Market	4-2 HT 3-1	Bury Town
27/07/21 Club Friendly List	Bury Town	3-1 HT 2-1	Needham Market
08/09/20 UK Friendlies	Needham Market	3-1 HT 2-1	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	10	9	0	1	19	8	27
3	Bromsgrove	10	7	2	1	18	9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	7	0	4	22	17	21
5	Alvechurch	10	6	2	2	17	5	20
6	Kettering	10	5	4	1	17	7	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	5	4	2	20	15	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
9	Needham Market	10	4	2	4	19	17	14
10	Redditch	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
11	Halesowen	8	4	1	3	9	9	13
12	Stourbridge	10	3	4	3	11	13	13
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
16	Leamington	10	2	3	5	13	16	9
17	Banbury	10	2	3	5	12	18	9
18	Stratford Town	10	2	3	5	11	19	9
19	Worcester City	10	1	4	5	7	13	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	10	0	0	10	3	28	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury Town	Needham Market
Alvechurch	1-0 W	0-2 L
Hitchin	1-0 W	3-1 W
Bromsgrove	0-1 L	1-3 L
Stratford Town	3-1 W	2-1 W
Stamford	1-0 W	4-0 W
Halesowen	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bury Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
22/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
11/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W

Needham Market

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
03/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-3	3-5	0	5	L
29/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
31/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
29/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
08/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury Town vs Needham Market?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury Town win (39%). Probabilities: Bury Town 39%, draw 25%, Needham Market 35%.

How many goals are expected in Bury Town vs Needham Market?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Bury Town 1.77 · Needham Market 1.67), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury Town vs Needham Market?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.