Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Leamington vs Redditch

Team pages: Leamington · Redditch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Leamington1.66

Redditch1.17

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Leamington Draw Redditch

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Leamington 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Redditch 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Leamington 4–1–1 Redditch (6 last)

Leamington0-0Redditch
Redditch0-3Leamington
Leamington3-0Redditch
Redditch2-1Leamington
Redditch0-1Leamington
Redditch0-2Leamington

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leamington 1459 · Redditch 1523

	Leamington	Draw	Redditch
Our model	48%	27%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Redditch (rating 1459 vs 1523).
H2H favours Leamington: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leamington	Redditch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:48 +15’	1.85	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leamington 4–1–1 Redditch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Leamington	0-0 HT 0-0	Redditch
23/03/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Redditch	0-3	Leamington
25/11/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Leamington	3-0	Redditch
07/10/23 England FA Trophy	Redditch	2-1 HT 1-0	Leamington
02/07/19 UK Friendlies	Redditch	0-1 HT 0-1	Leamington
18/10/16 England Southern League Premier	Redditch	0-2	Leamington

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	10	9	0	1	19	8	27
3	Bromsgrove	10	7	2	1	18	9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	7	0	4	22	17	21
5	Alvechurch	10	6	2	2	17	5	20
6	Kettering	10	5	4	1	17	7	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	5	4	2	20	15	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
9	Needham Market	10	4	2	4	19	17	14
10	Redditch	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
11	Halesowen	8	4	1	3	9	9	13
12	Stourbridge	10	3	4	3	11	13	13
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
16	Leamington	10	2	3	5	13	16	9
17	Banbury	10	2	3	5	12	18	9
18	Stratford Town	10	2	3	5	11	19	9
19	Worcester City	10	1	4	5	7	13	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	10	0	0	10	3	28	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leamington	Redditch
Stratford Town	1-2 L	0-0 D
Hitchin	4-0 W	1-1 D
Bromsgrove	1-1 D	1-2 L
Bishop's Stortford	1-3 L	3-1 W
Real Bedford	2-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Redditch (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leamington

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	4-0	3	0	W
29/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
01/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-4	4	5	L

Redditch

DDDLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-2	1	5	D
21/09	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
12/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
31/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-1	2	11	W
29/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	1-3	9	8	L
22/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
15/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
11/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
08/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leamington vs Redditch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leamington win (48%). Probabilities: Leamington 48%, draw 26%, Redditch 26%.

How many goals are expected in Leamington vs Redditch?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Leamington 1.66 · Redditch 1.17), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leamington vs Redditch?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.