Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Stamford vs Stratford Town

Team pages: Stamford · Stratford Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Stamford1.18

Stratford Town1.8

1X2

24% 24% 51%

Stamford Draw Stratford Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Stamford 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Stratford Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Stamford 0–1–5 Stratford Town (6 last)

Stratford Town4-2Stamford
Stamford1-2Stratford Town
Stratford Town1-1Stamford
Stamford0-2Stratford Town
Stratford Town2-1Stamford
Stamford2-4Stratford Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stamford 1341 · Stratford Town 1484

	Stamford	Draw	Stratford Town
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	25%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stratford Town (rating 1341 vs 1484).
H2H favours Stratford Town: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stamford	Stratford Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 2.8	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.5	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/25/75%	17/50/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 1.5	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.75

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.91 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:53 +10’	3.60	3.75	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:12 +52’	3.91	3.67	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stamford 0–1–5 Stratford Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stratford Town	4-2	Stamford
18/10/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	1-2	Stratford Town
12/04/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stratford Town	1-1	Stamford
14/12/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	0-2	Stratford Town
06/01/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stratford Town	2-1 HT 0-1	Stamford
12/09/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	2-4 HT 1-2	Stratford Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	10	9	0	1	19	8	27
3	Bromsgrove	10	7	2	1	18	9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	7	0	4	22	17	21
5	Alvechurch	10	6	2	2	17	5	20
6	Kettering	10	5	4	1	17	7	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	5	4	2	20	15	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
9	Needham Market	10	4	2	4	19	17	14
10	Redditch	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
11	Halesowen	8	4	1	3	9	9	13
12	Stourbridge	10	3	4	3	11	13	13
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
16	Leamington	10	2	3	5	13	16	9
17	Banbury	10	2	3	5	12	18	9
18	Stratford Town	10	2	3	5	11	19	9
19	Worcester City	10	1	4	5	7	13	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	10	0	0	10	3	28	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stamford	Stratford Town
Banbury	2-3 L	3-2 W
Needham Market	0-4 L	1-2 L
Kettering	0-5 L	0-1 L
Worcester City	0-1 L	1-1 D
Racing Club Warwick	1-2 L	0-0 D
Bury Town	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Stratford Town (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stamford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/09	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-4	0-4	1	2	L
19/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-5	0	6	L
29/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
22/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	3	1	L

Stratford Town

DDLLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
22/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	4	3	L
12/09	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	1-6	2	5	L
15/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	1-3	5	3	L
11/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stamford vs Stratford Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stratford Town win (51%). Probabilities: Stamford 24%, draw 24%, Stratford Town 51%.

How many goals are expected in Stamford vs Stratford Town?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Stamford 1.18 · Stratford Town 1.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stamford vs Stratford Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.