Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Worcester City vs Stourbridge

Team pages: Worcester City · Stourbridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Worcester City1.25

Stourbridge1.18

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Worcester City Draw Stourbridge

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Worcester City 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLLDDL

Stourbridge 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDLDLDLW

Head-to-head

Worcester City 1–1–1 Stourbridge (3 last)

Worcester City3-2Stourbridge
Stourbridge2-2Worcester City
Worcester City1-3Stourbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worcester City 1487 · Stourbridge 1484

	Worcester City	Draw	Stourbridge
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	38%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worcester City	Stourbridge
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/14/57%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	3.8 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +45’	2.38	3.25	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Worcester City 1–1–1 Stourbridge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Worcester City	3-2	Stourbridge
10/09/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	2-2 HT 2-0	Worcester City
31/07/18 Club Friendly List	Worcester City	1-3 HT 1-2	Stourbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	10	9	0	1	19	8	27
3	Bromsgrove	10	7	2	1	18	9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	7	0	4	22	17	21
5	Alvechurch	10	6	2	2	17	5	20
6	Kettering	10	5	4	1	17	7	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	5	4	2	20	15	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
9	Needham Market	10	4	2	4	19	17	14
10	Redditch	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
11	Halesowen	8	4	1	3	9	9	13
12	Stourbridge	10	3	4	3	11	13	13
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
16	Leamington	10	2	3	5	13	16	9
17	Banbury	10	2	3	5	12	18	9
18	Stratford Town	10	2	3	5	11	19	9
19	Worcester City	10	1	4	5	7	13	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	10	0	0	10	3	28	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worcester City	Stourbridge
Racing Club Warwick	2-2 D	0-1 L
Banbury	0-0 D	1-1 D
Leamington	1-1 D	0-2 L
Stamford	1-0 W	2-0 W
Leighton Town	1-2 L	2-1 W
Alvechurch	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Stourbridge (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worcester City

DLLWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
29/09	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-2	4	1	D
22/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
12/09	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
31/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-2	4	0	L
11/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	11	3	D

Stourbridge

WWDDLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
29/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
01/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
29/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worcester City vs Stourbridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worcester City win (37%). Probabilities: Worcester City 37%, draw 29%, Stourbridge 34%.

How many goals are expected in Worcester City vs Stourbridge?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Worcester City 1.25 · Stourbridge 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Worcester City vs Stourbridge?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.