Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 25/07, 21:00
Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Deportivo Recoleta1.72
Sportivo San Lorenzo1.24
1X2
Deportivo Recoleta
Draw
Sportivo San Lorenzo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Recoleta
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sportivo San Lorenzo
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Recoleta
4–1–1
Sportivo San Lorenzo
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Recoleta 1537 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1455
| Deportivo Recoleta | Draw | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Recoleta (rating 1537 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Deportivo Recoleta: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Recoleta | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.5 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta 4–1–1 Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 06/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 17/08/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 11/05/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Deportivo Recoleta | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 08/07/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Deportivo Recoleta | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 31/03/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Recoleta |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Recoleta | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Guarani Asuncion | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Olimpia Asuncion | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Cerro Porteno | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| 2 de Mayo | 5-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Recoleta (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Recoleta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/05 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/05 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 27/04 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/04 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/04 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Recoleta win (47%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta 47%, draw 27%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 26%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Deportivo Recoleta 1.72 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1.24), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.