Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 26/07, 23:30

Prediction: Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Guarani Asuncion1.6

Sportivo Luqueno1.15

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Guarani Asuncion Draw Sportivo Luqueno

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani Asuncion 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Luqueno 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Guarani Asuncion 5–1 Sportivo Luqueno (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani Asuncion 1516 · Sportivo Luqueno 1456

	Guarani Asuncion	Draw	Sportivo Luqueno
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani Asuncion (rating 1516 vs 1456).
H2H favours Guarani Asuncion: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani Asuncion	Sportivo Luqueno
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +3’	1.95	3.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani Asuncion 5–0–1 Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-0	Sportivo Luqueno
23/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	3-2 HT 3-1	Guarani Asuncion
30/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno
05/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	2-3 HT 2-0	Guarani Asuncion
25/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-0	Sportivo Luqueno
23/03/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 HT 0-1	Guarani Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani Asuncion	Sportivo Luqueno
Deportivo Recoleta	1-2 L	2-1 W
Sportivo Ameliano	1-0 W	2-2 D
Cerro Porteno	0-0 D	2-3 L
Nacional Asuncion	0-1 L	2-3 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-1 L	0-0 D
Libertad Asuncion	1-0 W	2-3 L
Rubio Nu	2-0 W	0-0 D
Sportivo Trinidense	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani Asuncion (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
16/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
12/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
26/04	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	1	7	D
18/04	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
11/04	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
06/04	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
01/04	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/03	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
03/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/04	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
18/04	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	9	10	L
11/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
05/04	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
01/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-3	2-3	2	7	L
27/03	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guarani Asuncion win (46%). Probabilities: Guarani Asuncion 46%, draw 28%, Sportivo Luqueno 26%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Guarani Asuncion 1.6 · Sportivo Luqueno 1.15), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.