Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 26/07, 21:00
Prediction: Olimpia Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Olimpia Asuncion1.69
Libertad Asuncion1.2
1X2
Olimpia Asuncion
Draw
Libertad Asuncion
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Olimpia Asuncion
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Libertad Asuncion
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olimpia Asuncion
1–3–2
Libertad Asuncion
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olimpia Asuncion 1549 · Libertad Asuncion 1444
| Olimpia Asuncion | Draw | Libertad Asuncion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Asuncion (rating 1549 vs 1444).
- H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olimpia Asuncion | Libertad Asuncion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6 | 1.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Asuncion 1–3–2 Libertad Asuncion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Olimpia Asuncion |
| 26/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Olimpia Asuncion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 02/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Olimpia Asuncion |
| 17/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Olimpia Asuncion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 22/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Olimpia Asuncion | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 15/03/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Olimpia Asuncion |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olimpia Asuncion | Libertad Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Luqueno | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0-1 L | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olimpia Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Flamengo America Friendlies |
1-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Audax Italiano Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 3-1 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 15/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 03/05 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 11 | L |
Libertad Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | UCV Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/05 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 29/04 | Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 21/04 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olimpia Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Asuncion win (47%). Probabilities: Olimpia Asuncion 47%, draw 27%, Libertad Asuncion 26%.
How many goals are expected in Olimpia Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Olimpia Asuncion 1.69 · Libertad Asuncion 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Olimpia Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.