Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 25/07, 23:30

Prediction: Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Sportivo Ameliano1.2

Nacional Asuncion1.2

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Sportivo Ameliano Draw Nacional Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Ameliano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDDWLL

Nacional Asuncion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWWWDW

Head-to-head

Sportivo Ameliano 3–2–1 Nacional Asuncion (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Ameliano 1519 · Nacional Asuncion 1546

	Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Nacional Asuncion
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sportivo Ameliano: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Ameliano	Nacional Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 3.14 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.06
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +15’	2.60	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:11	3.11	3.03	2.36
15:10	3.14▲	3.06▲	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Ameliano 3–2–1 Nacional Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 HT 1-1	Nacional Asuncion
20/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
20/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	2-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
29/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	3-0 HT 1-0	Nacional Asuncion
04/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano
22/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	2-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Ameliano	Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense	1-2 L	2-1 W
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Recoleta	3-2 W	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-1 D	0-3 L
Cerro Porteno	1-1 D	0-0 D
2 de Mayo	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sportivo Luqueno	2-2 D	3-2 W
Libertad Asuncion	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Ameliano

WWDWDDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
25/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
21/04	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
10/04	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
05/04	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
01/04	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	8	5	W
28/03	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-0	3	5	W

Nacional Asuncion

WDLDDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	10	6	D
10/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
04/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
24/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	14	7	W
21/04	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
12/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
04/04	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-3	5	7	L
31/03	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
27/03	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	3-2	11	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Ameliano win (35%). Probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano 35%, draw 30%, Nacional Asuncion 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Sportivo Ameliano 1.2 · Nacional Asuncion 1.2), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.