Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 26/07, 21:30

Prediction: Deportivo Miranda FC vs Aragua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.59Total

Deportivo Miranda FC0.99

Aragua0.6

1X2

44% 33% 23%

Deportivo Miranda FC Draw Aragua

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Miranda FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWWDLL

Aragua 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDDDWWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Miranda FC 3–1–2 Aragua (6 last)

Aragua1-0Deportivo Miranda FC
Deportivo Miranda FC1-0Aragua
Deportivo Miranda FC2-1Aragua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Miranda FC 1508 · Aragua 1505

	Deportivo Miranda FC	Draw	Aragua
Our model	42%	37%	21%
Market	46%	30%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.59 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Miranda FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 13.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Miranda FC	Aragua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	7.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.00

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 1.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.00 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
2	3.70 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +14’	1.95	3.00	3.70
15:16 +2’	1.95	2.88▼	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Miranda FC 3–1–2 Aragua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Miranda FC
01/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Deportivo Miranda FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Aragua
19/10/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Deportivo Miranda FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Aragua
12/10/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Miranda FC
03/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Miranda FC
20/07/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Deportivo Miranda FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Aragua

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monagas II	14	8	3	3	20	13	27
2	Deportivo Miranda FC	14	6	4	4	10	8	22
3	Bolivar SC	14	6	3	5	14	14	21
4	CS Maritimo de La Guaira	14	5	5	4	16	13	20
5	Dynamo Puerto FC	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
6	Aragua	14	5	5	4	12	10	20
7	Atletico Avila	14	1	9	4	8	13	12
8	Mineros	14	0	6	8	9	20	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Miranda FC	Aragua
Bolivar SC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Monagas II	0-2 L	1-2 L
Dynamo Puerto FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Mineros	2-0 W	2-0 W
CS Maritimo de La Guaira	1-0 W	0-0 D
Atletico Avila	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aragua (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Miranda FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/06	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
31/05	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
24/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	4	11	D
16/05	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/05	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
03/05	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
25/04	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
12/04	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
05/04	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/03	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	7	L

Aragua

DLWDDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Caracas Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
31/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
23/05	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
16/05	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
09/05	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
03/05	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
25/04	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
12/04	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
04/04	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Miranda FC vs Aragua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Miranda FC win (44%). Probabilities: Deportivo Miranda FC 44%, draw 33%, Aragua 23%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Miranda FC vs Aragua?

The model expects 1.59 goals (Deportivo Miranda FC 0.99 · Aragua 0.6), with a 61% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Miranda FC vs Aragua?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.