Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 25/07, 21:30

Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Barquisimeto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Academia Puerto Cabello II0.89

Barquisimeto1.31

1X2

25% 29% 46%

Academia Puerto Cabello II Draw Barquisimeto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Puerto Cabello II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLDWL

Barquisimeto 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Academia Puerto Cabello II 1–1–4 Barquisimeto (6 last)

Barquisimeto2-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II1-2Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto0-0Academia Puerto Cabello II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1466 · Barquisimeto 1509

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Draw	Barquisimeto
Our model	24%	31%	45%
Market	26%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barquisimeto (rating 1466 vs 1509).
H2H favours Barquisimeto: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 13.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Barquisimeto
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.4	7.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.25

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:35 +11’	3.50	3.25	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1–1–4 Barquisimeto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-1 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
22/02/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-2 HT 0-2	Barquisimeto
20/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	0-0 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
10/08/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-3 HT 0-1	Barquisimeto
15/06/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	1-2 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
26/04/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-2 HT 0-1	Barquisimeto

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	16	9	5	2	24	14	32
2	Barquisimeto	16	9	4	3	24	13	31
3	Urena SC	16	8	6	2	24	15	30
4	Zamora II	16	6	6	4	25	21	24
5	Yaracuyanos	16	7	3	6	21	18	24
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	16	6	2	8	20	20	20
7	Atletico Barinas	16	6	2	8	31	32	20
8	Real Frontera	16	3	2	11	16	29	11
9	Atletico El Vigia	16	1	4	11	12	35	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Barquisimeto
Zamora II	1-2 L	0-0 D
Real Frontera	2-1 W	2-1 W
CD Lara	1-1 D	0-1 L
Yaracuyanos	0-1 L	0-4 L
Atletico El Vigia	1-0 W	5-0 W
Atletico Barinas	1-2 L	1-2 L
Urena SC	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barquisimeto (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Academia Puerto Cabello II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/06	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
24/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
20/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
16/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
10/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/04	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-3	5	9	L
18/04	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
11/04	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
29/03	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	2	8	W

Barquisimeto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Cup	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
06/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
30/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
24/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
20/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
16/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
09/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/04	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	6	12	D
18/04	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	6	8	W
11/04	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	7	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Barquisimeto?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barquisimeto win (46%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello II 25%, draw 29%, Barquisimeto 46%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Barquisimeto?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello II 0.89 · Barquisimeto 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Barquisimeto?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.