Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 25/07, 22:00

Prediction: Yaracuyanos vs Atletico El Vigia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Yaracuyanos2.29

Atletico El Vigia0.79

1X2

71% 18% 11%

Yaracuyanos Draw Atletico El Vigia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Yaracuyanos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLWDLW

Atletico El Vigia 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Yaracuyanos 4–2–0 Atletico El Vigia (6 last)

Atletico El Vigia0-1Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos2-0Atletico El Vigia
Yaracuyanos2-1Atletico El Vigia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yaracuyanos 1542 · Atletico El Vigia 1399

	Yaracuyanos	Draw	Atletico El Vigia
Our model	70%	19%	10%
Market	72%	16%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yaracuyanos (rating 1542 vs 1399).
H2H favours Yaracuyanos: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yaracuyanos	Atletico El Vigia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	0.7 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.9 / 7	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:35 +11’	1.25	5.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yaracuyanos 4–2–0 Atletico El Vigia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	0-1 HT 0-1	Yaracuyanos
21/02/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
19/04/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico El Vigia
17/09/23 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-1 HT 1-0	Yaracuyanos
29/07/23 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico El Vigia
17/05/23 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-2 HT 0-0	Yaracuyanos

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	16	9	5	2	24	14	32
2	Barquisimeto	16	9	4	3	24	13	31
3	Urena SC	16	8	6	2	24	15	30
4	Zamora II	16	6	6	4	25	21	24
5	Yaracuyanos	16	7	3	6	21	18	24
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	16	6	2	8	20	20	20
7	Atletico Barinas	16	6	2	8	31	32	20
8	Real Frontera	16	3	2	11	16	29	11
9	Atletico El Vigia	16	1	4	11	12	35	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yaracuyanos	Atletico El Vigia
Barquisimeto	4-0 W	0-5 L
Atletico Barinas	1-2 L	1-7 L
Urena SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Zamora II	2-3 L	1-1 D
Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-0 W	0-1 L
Real Frontera	1-1 D	0-1 L
CD Lara	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Yaracuyanos (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Yaracuyanos

WWLDWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Barquisimeto Venezuela Cup	3-0	4-0	6	6	W
06/06	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
31/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	13	1	D
24/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
20/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-3	8	9	L
16/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	9	9	W
09/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
02/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
19/04	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
12/04	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	4-1	5	6	W

Atletico El Vigia

WLLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Zamora Venezuela Cup	1-4	1-6	5	5	L
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L
24/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-5	2	6	L
16/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
10/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
03/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
25/04	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
19/04	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
05/04	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	3-1	3-2	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yaracuyanos vs Atletico El Vigia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yaracuyanos win (71%). Probabilities: Yaracuyanos 71%, draw 18%, Atletico El Vigia 11%.

How many goals are expected in Yaracuyanos vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Yaracuyanos 2.29 · Atletico El Vigia 0.79), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Yaracuyanos vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.