Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 25/07, 23:00
Prediction: CD Lara vs Atletico Barinas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
CD Lara2.04
Atletico Barinas1
1X2
CD Lara
Draw
Atletico Barinas
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CD Lara
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Atletico Barinas
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Lara
2–0
Atletico Barinas
(2 last)
- Atletico Barinas1-3CD Lara
- CD Lara1-0Atletico Barinas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Lara 1557 · Atletico Barinas 1503
| CD Lara | Draw | Atletico Barinas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Lara (rating 1557 vs 1503).
- H2H favours CD Lara: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Lara | Atletico Barinas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 2.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Lara 2–0–0 Atletico Barinas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division | Atletico Barinas | 1-3 HT 1-1 | CD Lara |
| 21/02/26 Venezuela Segunda Division | CD Lara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Barinas |
Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Lara | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Barquisimeto | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 15 | 30 |
| 4 | Zamora II | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 24 |
| 5 | Yaracuyanos | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 18 | 24 |
| 6 | Academia Puerto Cabello II | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Atletico Barinas | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 32 | 20 |
| 8 | Real Frontera | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 11 |
| 9 | Atletico El Vigia | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 35 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Lara | Atletico Barinas |
|---|---|---|
| Urena SC | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Barquisimeto | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Zamora II | 4-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Academia Puerto Cabello II | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Real Frontera | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Yaracuyanos | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Atletico El Vigia | 1-0 W | 7-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Lara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Urena SC Venezuela Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 24/05 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
Atletico Barinas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Real Frontera Venezuela Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-0 | 7-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Lara vs Atletico Barinas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Lara win (60%). Probabilities: CD Lara 60%, draw 23%, Atletico Barinas 17%.
How many goals are expected in CD Lara vs Atletico Barinas?
The model expects 3.03 goals (CD Lara 2.04 · Atletico Barinas 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Lara vs Atletico Barinas?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.