Football · Thailand Premier League · 10/10, 13:00
Prediction: BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United
Team pages: BG Pathum United · Ayutthaya United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
BG Pathum United1.99
Ayutthaya United0.8
1X2
BG Pathum United
Draw
Ayutthaya United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
BG Pathum United
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Ayutthaya United
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
BG Pathum United
3–1–0
Ayutthaya United
(4 last)
- Ayutthaya United0-2BG Pathum United
- BG Pathum United1-0Ayutthaya United
- Ayutthaya United3-3BG Pathum United
- BG Pathum United1-0Ayutthaya United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · BG Pathum United 1520 · Ayutthaya United 1434
| BG Pathum United | Draw | Ayutthaya United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BG Pathum United (rating 1520 vs 1434).
- H2H favours BG Pathum United: 3-1-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BG Pathum United | Ayutthaya United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.4 | 1.5 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · BG Pathum United 3–1–0 Ayutthaya United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Thailand Premier League | Ayutthaya United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | BG Pathum United |
| 18/10/25 Thailand Premier League | BG Pathum United | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ayutthaya United |
| 25/09/19 Thailand Division 2 | Ayutthaya United | 3-3 HT 0-1 | BG Pathum United |
| 29/05/19 Thailand Division 2 | BG Pathum United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ayutthaya United |
Standings · Thailand Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ratchaburi FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Rayong FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Uthai Thani FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Prachuap FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Bangkok United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Port FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | BG Pathum United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Chiangrai Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Pattani FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Sisaket United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Sukhothai FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
| 14 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 15 | Lamphun Warrior FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | BG Pathum United | Ayutthaya United |
|---|---|---|
| Bangkok United | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Prachuap FC | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Nakhon Ratchasima | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Port FC | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Ratchaburi FC | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: BG Pathum United (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
BG Pathum United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Bangkok United Thailand Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Rasi Salai United Thailand Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Pattani FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Port FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 04/04 | Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 22/03 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 14/03 | Rayong FC Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Ayutthaya United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Sisaket United Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Port FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Bangkok United Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Buriram United Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a BG Pathum United win (64%). Probabilities: BG Pathum United 64%, draw 22%, Ayutthaya United 14%.
How many goals are expected in BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United?
The model expects 2.79 goals (BG Pathum United 1.99 · Ayutthaya United 0.8), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya United?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.