Football · Thailand Premier League · 16/10, 14:00

Prediction: Ayutthaya United vs Lamphun Warrior FC

Team pages: Ayutthaya United · Lamphun Warrior FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Ayutthaya United1.2

Lamphun Warrior FC1.2

1X2

35% 29% 35%

Ayutthaya United Draw Lamphun Warrior FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ayutthaya United 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Lamphun Warrior FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDLLDL

Head-to-head

Ayutthaya United 0–4–2 Lamphun Warrior FC (6 last)

Lamphun Warrior FC2-0Ayutthaya United
Ayutthaya United1-1Lamphun Warrior FC
Lamphun Warrior FC2-1Ayutthaya United
Ayutthaya United1-1Lamphun Warrior FC
Lamphun Warrior FC2-2Ayutthaya United
Ayutthaya United2-2Lamphun Warrior FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ayutthaya United 1432 · Lamphun Warrior FC 1448

	Ayutthaya United	Draw	Lamphun Warrior FC
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lamphun Warrior FC: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ayutthaya United	Lamphun Warrior FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.50▲	Bet365 2.50
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.36
2	3.25 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.69 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +6’	2.00	3.25	3.25
16:14 +5’	2.50▲	3.20▼	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +22’	2.44	3.36	2.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayutthaya United 0–4–2 Lamphun Warrior FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Thailand Premier League	Lamphun Warrior FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Ayutthaya United
29/11/25 Thailand Premier League	Ayutthaya United	1-1 HT 0-0	Lamphun Warrior FC
09/04/22 Thailand Division 2	Lamphun Warrior FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Ayutthaya United
20/11/21 Thailand Division 2	Ayutthaya United	1-1 HT 1-0	Lamphun Warrior FC
15/07/18 Thailand Division 3	Lamphun Warrior FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Ayutthaya United
25/03/18 Thailand Division 3	Ayutthaya United	2-2 HT 1-0	Lamphun Warrior FC

Standings · Thailand Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Buriram United	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
2	Uthai Thani FC	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
3	Bangkok United	4	3	0	1	8	4	9
4	Prachuap FC	4	3	0	1	6	2	9
5	Port FC	4	3	0	1	8	6	9
6	Ratchaburi FC	4	2	1	1	9	3	7
7	Rayong FC	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
8	Ayutthaya United	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	Sisaket United	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	BG Pathum United	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
11	Chiangrai Utd	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
12	Pattani FC	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
13	Sukhothai FC	4	1	0	3	3	11	3
14	Rasi Salai United	4	0	1	3	6	10	1
15	Lamphun Warrior FC	4	0	1	3	3	9	1
16	Chonburi	4	0	0	4	3	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ayutthaya United	Lamphun Warrior FC
Uthai Thani FC	1-2 L	1-4 L
Ratchaburi FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Port FC	1-4 L	1-2 L
Bangkok United	1-4 L	0-2 L
Buriram United	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lamphun Warrior FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ayutthaya United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	BG Pathum United Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
18/09	Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Sisaket United Thailand Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
06/09	Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
10/05	Port FC Thailand Premier League	0-1	1-4	3	2	L
02/05	Bangkok United Thailand Premier League	0-0	1-4	8	2	L
26/04	Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
12/04	Buriram United Thailand Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
05/04	Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/03	Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

Lamphun Warrior FC

DWLDDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Bangkok United Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
19/09	Rasi Salai United Thailand Premier League	1-1	1-1	9	1	D
11/09	Port FC Thailand Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League	0-3	1-4	6	2	L
10/05	Buriram United Thailand Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
03/05	Chiangrai Utd Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
26/04	Rayong FC Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
11/04	Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/04	Ayutthaya United Thailand Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
21/03	Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ayutthaya United vs Lamphun Warrior FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ayutthaya United win (35%). Probabilities: Ayutthaya United 35%, draw 29%, Lamphun Warrior FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Ayutthaya United vs Lamphun Warrior FC?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Ayutthaya United 1.2 · Lamphun Warrior FC 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ayutthaya United vs Lamphun Warrior FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.