Football · Croatia 2.NL · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Lucko vs NK Trnje

Team pages: NK Lucko · NK Trnje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

NK Lucko1.34

NK Trnje1.47

1X2

34% 27% 40%

NK Lucko Draw NK Trnje

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Lucko 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLDLLL

NK Trnje 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDLLW

Head-to-head

NK Lucko 3–1–1 NK Trnje (5 last)

NK Lucko2-1NK Trnje
NK Trnje0-1NK Lucko
NK Trnje4-4NK Lucko
NK Lucko0-1NK Trnje
NK Trnje0-1NK Lucko

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Lucko 1446 · NK Trnje 1532

	NK Lucko	Draw	NK Trnje
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Trnje (rating 1446 vs 1532).
H2H favours NK Lucko: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Lucko	NK Trnje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/14/71%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	1.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:42 +3’	2.63	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Lucko 3–1–1 NK Trnje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 Croatia 2.NL	NK Lucko	2-1 HT 0-1	NK Trnje
23/08/25 Croatia 2.NL	NK Trnje	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Lucko
28/05/22 Croatia 2.NL	NK Trnje	4-4 HT 0-1	NK Lucko
11/04/21 Croatia 2.NL	NK Lucko	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Trnje
03/11/19 Croatia 2.NL	NK Trnje	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Lucko

Standings · Croatia 2.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bjelovar	7	4	2	1	16	9	14
2	NK Trnje	7	4	1	2	12	7	13
3	NK Dugo Selo	7	4	1	2	11	6	13
4	NK Uskok	6	4	0	2	14	7	12
5	NK Solin	7	3	2	2	11	9	11
6	NK Uljanik	7	3	2	2	14	15	11
7	NK Jarun	6	2	4	0	14	10	10
8	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
9	NK Krizevci	7	3	1	3	10	11	10
10	NK Zagora	7	2	3	2	17	16	9
11	NK Slavonija Pozega	7	2	2	3	13	13	8
12	NK Inker Zapresic	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
13	NK Grobnican	7	2	1	4	9	17	7
14	NK Lucko	7	1	2	4	7	10	5
15	NK Koprivnica	7	1	2	4	9	17	5
16	Varteks Varazdin	7	1	2	4	5	13	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Lucko	NK Trnje
NK Dugo Selo	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Uljanik	2-2 D	2-0 W
NK Solin	0-1 L	1-3 L
NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac	3-0 W	0-1 L
NK Jarun	1-1 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Lucko (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Lucko

LLWDWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	NK Slavonija Pozega Croatia 2.NL	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
26/09	NK Zagora Croatia 2.NL	0-2	1-3	5	7	L
18/09	NK Dugo Selo Croatia 2.NL	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
11/09	NK Uljanik Croatia 2.NL	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
04/09	NK Solin Croatia 2.NL	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
29/08	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac Croatia 2.NL	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
22/08	NK Jarun Croatia 2.NL	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
30/05	NK Croatia Dakovo Croatia 2.NL	–	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	NK Dugo Selo Croatia 2.NL	–	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	Jadran LP Croatia 2.NL	–	2-3	–	–	L

NK Trnje

WWLWWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	NK Uljanik Croatia 2.NL	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
26/09	NK Solin Croatia 2.NL	0-1	1-3	2	6	L
19/09	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac Croatia 2.NL	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
12/09	NK Jarun Croatia 2.NL	1-2	3-3	5	2	D
05/09	NK Koprivnica Croatia 2.NL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
28/08	Bjelovar Croatia 2.NL	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
22/08	NK Inker Zapresic Croatia 2.NL	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
30/05	NK Dugo Selo Croatia 2.NL	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	NK Grobnican Croatia 2.NL	0-0	5-1	6	1	W
16/05	NK Kustosija Croatia 2.NL	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Lucko vs NK Trnje?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Trnje win (40%). Probabilities: NK Lucko 34%, draw 27%, NK Trnje 40%.

How many goals are expected in NK Lucko vs NK Trnje?

The model expects 2.81 goals (NK Lucko 1.34 · NK Trnje 1.47), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Lucko vs NK Trnje?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.