Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: CD Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses

Team pages: CD Mafra · CF Os Belenenses

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

CD Mafra1.43

CF Os Belenenses1.53

1X2

34% 28% 38%

CD Mafra Draw CF Os Belenenses

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Mafra 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWDLWL

CF Os Belenenses 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

CD Mafra 0–3–3 CF Os Belenenses (6 last)

CF Os Belenenses3-1CD Mafra
CD Mafra1-4CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses2-1CD Mafra
CD Mafra1-1CF Os Belenenses
CD Mafra1-1CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses1-1CD Mafra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Mafra 1475 · CF Os Belenenses 1604

	CD Mafra	Draw	CF Os Belenenses
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CF Os Belenenses (rating 1475 vs 1604).
H2H favours CF Os Belenenses: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Mafra	CF Os Belenenses
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	3.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.88▲	Pinn 3.10 ★
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.38 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.33

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +44’	2.70	3.10	2.38
07:37 +18’	2.80▲	3.20▲	2.25▼
20:17 +10’	2.88▲	3.20	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:07 +149’	2.92	3.04	2.46
18:52 +16’	3.06▲	3.05▲	2.36▼
18:32 +115’	3.10▲	3.06▲	2.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Mafra 0–3–3 CF Os Belenenses

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Portugal Liga 3	CF Os Belenenses	3-1 HT 0-0	CD Mafra
22/03/26 Portugal Liga 3	CD Mafra	1-4 HT 1-3	CF Os Belenenses
09/11/25 Portugal Liga 3	CF Os Belenenses	2-1 HT 0-0	CD Mafra
09/08/25 Portugal Liga 3	CD Mafra	1-1 HT 0-1	CF Os Belenenses
02/02/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	CD Mafra	1-1 HT 1-0	CF Os Belenenses
26/08/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	CF Os Belenenses	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Mafra

Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	5	0	0	13	2	15
2	Atletico CP Lisbon	5	3	1	1	8	3	10
3	UD Oliveirense	5	2	2	1	7	7	8
4	Louletano DC	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
5	UD Santarem	6	2	1	3	6	10	7
6	Caldas SC	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
7	CD Mafra	5	2	1	2	9	5	7
8	Sporting Covilha	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
9	Lusitano GC Evora	6	1	2	3	4	8	5
10	GD Vitoria de Sernache	5	0	1	4	3	13	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Mafra	CF Os Belenenses
Atletico CP Lisbon	1-1 D	1-0 W
GD Vitoria de Sernache	5-0 W	3-1 W
Academica	3-3 D	1-2 L
Amarante	1-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Mafra

LWWDLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	UD Oliveirense Portugal Liga 3	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
05/09	Sporting Covilha Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
22/08	Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
15/08	Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Liga 3	3-0	5-0	6	3	W
16/05	CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Academica Portugal Liga 3	2-0	3-3	5	7	D
03/05	Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
25/04	Trofense Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
19/04	Amarante Portugal Liga 3	0-1	1-4	4	3	L

CF Os Belenenses

LDDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
06/09	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Liga 3	1-0	3-1	6	6	W
22/08	UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
15/08	Louletano DC Portugal Liga 3	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
08/08	Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
16/05	CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
10/05	Varzim Portugal Liga 3	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
02/05	UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-1	12	5	D
26/04	Amarante Portugal Liga 3	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
19/04	Academica Portugal Liga 3	0-1	1-2	7	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CF Os Belenenses win (38%). Probabilities: CD Mafra 34%, draw 28%, CF Os Belenenses 38%.

How many goals are expected in CD Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?

The model expects 2.97 goals (CD Mafra 1.43 · CF Os Belenenses 1.53), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.