Football · Thailand Premier League · 06/09, 14:00

Prediction: Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Sukhothai FC0.8

Buriram United2.02

1X2

13% 21% 66%

Sukhothai FC Draw Buriram United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sukhothai FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLW

Buriram United 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWLLD

Head-to-head

Sukhothai FC 0–6 Buriram United (6 last)

Buriram United6-0Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC0-1Buriram United
Sukhothai FC1-2Buriram United
Buriram United2-0Sukhothai FC
Buriram United4-0Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC0-1Buriram United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sukhothai FC 1442 · Buriram United 1627

	Sukhothai FC	Draw	Buriram United
Our model	13%	22%	65%
Market	14%	20%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buriram United (rating 1442 vs 1627).
H2H favours Buriram United: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sukhothai FC	Buriram United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	2.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	3.4 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.50

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)2.00

2 (-1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Pinn 4.85
2	1.36 → 1.30▼	Pinn 1.37 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:44 +1’	6.50	4.50	1.36
19:13 +13’	7.50▲	4.75▲	1.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +278’	6.99	4.85	1.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sukhothai FC 0–0–6 Buriram United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Thailand Premier League	Buriram United	6-0 HT 2-0	Sukhothai FC
24/12/25 Thailand Premier League	Sukhothai FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Buriram United
06/04/25 Thailand Premier League	Sukhothai FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Buriram United
22/11/24 Thailand Premier League	Buriram United	2-0 HT 1-0	Sukhothai FC
14/02/24 Thailand Premier League	Buriram United	4-0 HT 0-0	Sukhothai FC
26/08/23 Thailand Premier League	Sukhothai FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Buriram United

Standings · Thailand Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bangkok United	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Port FC	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Chiangrai Utd	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	Rayong FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	BG Pathum United	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
5	Pattani FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	Ayutthaya United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Buriram United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Lamphun Warrior FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Ratchaburi FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Sukhothai FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Uthai Thani FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Rasi Salai United	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Chonburi	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	Prachuap FC	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	Sisaket United	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sukhothai FC	Buriram United
Muang Thong United	3-0 W	2-1 W
Nakhon Ratchasima	0-1 L	3-0 W
Ratchaburi FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Chonburi	0-2 L	5-0 W
Kanchanaburi Power	0-1 L	3-1 W
Rayong FC	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Buriram United (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sukhothai FC

LLWLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
02/05	Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
24/04	Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
11/04	Chiangrai Utd Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
03/04	Bangkok United Thailand Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
21/03	Chonburi Thailand Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
15/03	Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
07/03	Rayong FC Thailand Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
01/03	BG Pathum United Thailand Premier League	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
21/02	Buriram United Thailand Premier League	0-2	0-6	3	0	L

Buriram United

WWWWDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
02/05	Port FC Thailand Premier League	0-3	1-3	8	3	L
29/04	Rayong FC Thailand Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	7	L
26/04	Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League	0-1	3-1	5	5	W
12/04	Ayutthaya United Thailand Premier League	1-0	2-0	12	4	W
04/04	Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
22/03	Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
14/03	Chonburi Thailand Premier League	3-0	5-0	13	2	W
07/03	Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
21/02	Sukhothai FC Thailand Premier League	2-0	6-0	9	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Buriram United win (66%). Probabilities: Sukhothai FC 13%, draw 21%, Buriram United 66%.

How many goals are expected in Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Sukhothai FC 0.8 · Buriram United 2.02), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.