Football · Greece Super League 1 · 22/08, 19:00
Prediction: Kalamata vs Aris Salonika
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Kalamata0.98
Aris Salonika1.47
1X2
Kalamata
Draw
Aris Salonika
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Kalamata
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Aris Salonika
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kalamata 1582 · Aris Salonika 1553
| Kalamata | Draw | Aris Salonika | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Market | 23% | 31% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kalamata | Aris Salonika | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 2.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Standings · Greece Super League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kifisias FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AEK Athens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levadiakos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aris Salonika | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atromitos Athinon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | OFI Crete | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olympiacos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kalamata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Panetolikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PAOK Salonika | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Iraklis 1908 FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Volos NFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kalamata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Panionios Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 10/08 | Volos NFC Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 2 Super Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 21/03 | Marko Greece Super League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Olympiacos B Greece Super League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/03 | Panionios Greece Super League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 12 | W |
| 01/03 | Marko Greece Super League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 21/02 | Olympiacos B Greece Super League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/02 | Panionios Greece Super League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 10 | L |
| 25/01 | Hellas Syrou Greece Super League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Aris Salonika
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Napoli Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-6 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 08/08 | Panserraikos Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 30/07 | Monza Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 13/05 | Volos NFC Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Volos NFC Greece Super League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 05/04 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kalamata vs Aris Salonika?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Aris Salonika win (47%). Probabilities: Kalamata 24%, draw 30%, Aris Salonika 47%.
How many goals are expected in Kalamata vs Aris Salonika?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Kalamata 0.98 · Aris Salonika 1.47), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Aris Salonika?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.