Football · Greece Super League 1 · 23/08, 20:30
Prediction: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis
Team pages: Panetolikos · Asteras Tripolis
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
Panetolikos1.14
Asteras Tripolis1.14
1X2
Panetolikos
Draw
Asteras Tripolis
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Panetolikos
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Asteras Tripolis
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Panetolikos
1–2–3
Asteras Tripolis
(6 last)
- Panetolikos1-2Asteras Tripolis
- Asteras Tripolis2-1Panetolikos
- Panetolikos3-1Asteras Tripolis
- Asteras Tripolis1-1Panetolikos
- Asteras Tripolis2-0Panetolikos
- Panetolikos1-1Asteras Tripolis
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Panetolikos 1457 · Asteras Tripolis 1538
| Panetolikos | Draw | Asteras Tripolis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 31% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Asteras Tripolis (rating 1457 vs 1538).
- H2H favours Asteras Tripolis: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Panetolikos | Asteras Tripolis | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.5 | 2.1 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Panetolikos 1–2–3 Asteras Tripolis
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Asteras Tripolis |
| 22/04/26 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Panetolikos |
| 14/02/26 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Asteras Tripolis |
| 22/11/25 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Panetolikos |
| 13/01/25 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Panetolikos |
| 21/09/24 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Asteras Tripolis |
Standings · Greece Super League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Aris Salonika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Kifisias FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Levadiakos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Asteras Tripolis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | OFI Crete | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Panetolikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | PAOK Salonika | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Volos NFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Atromitos Athinon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Iraklis 1908 FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Panetolikos | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|
| Panserraikos | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Larissa | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Atromitos Athinon | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Kifisias FC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Asteras Tripolis (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Panetolikos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Panserraikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Larissa Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 22/04 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Panserraikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 08/04 | Larissa Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Asteras Tripolis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Panserraikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 10 | W |
| 09/05 | Larissa Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
3-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 08/04 | Panserraikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Larissa Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Panetolikos win (34%). Probabilities: Panetolikos 34%, draw 31%, Asteras Tripolis 34%.
How many goals are expected in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Panetolikos 1.14 · Asteras Tripolis 1.14), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.