Football · Australia A-League · 21/11, 05:00
Prediction: Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory
Team pages: Auckland FC · Melbourne Victory
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Auckland FC1.23
Melbourne Victory1.23
1X2
Auckland FC
Draw
Melbourne Victory
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Auckland FC
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Melbourne Victory
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Auckland FC
2–3–1
Melbourne Victory
(6 last)
- Auckland FC2-2Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory0-0Auckland FC
- Auckland FC0-2Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory0-1Auckland FC
- Melbourne Victory0-2Auckland FC
- Auckland FC0-0Melbourne Victory
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland FC 1474 · Melbourne Victory 1496
| Auckland FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Auckland FC: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland FC | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.5 | 2.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland FC 2–3–1 Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory |
| 18/10/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Auckland FC |
| 24/05/25 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 17/05/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Auckland FC |
| 19/04/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Auckland FC |
| 01/01/25 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Victory |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Sydney FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Auckland FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland FC | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 2-5 L | 2-0 W |
| Melbourne City | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Sydney FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Adelaide United | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Central Coast Mariners | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/10 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 24/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 17/10 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 6 | L |
Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 01/11 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland FC win (36%). Probabilities: Auckland FC 36%, draw 28%, Melbourne Victory 36%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Auckland FC 1.23 · Melbourne Victory 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.