Football · Australia A-League · 21/11, 07:00
Prediction: Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory
Team pages: Central Coast Mariners · Perth Glory
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Central Coast Mariners1.39
Perth Glory1.58
1X2
Central Coast Mariners
Draw
Perth Glory
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Central Coast Mariners
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Perth Glory
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Central Coast Mariners
2–3–1
Perth Glory
(6 last)
- Central Coast Mariners2-2Perth Glory
- Perth Glory3-0Central Coast Mariners
- Perth Glory0-1Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners2-2Perth Glory
- Central Coast Mariners3-1Perth Glory
- Perth Glory1-1Central Coast Mariners
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central Coast Mariners 1452 · Perth Glory 1512
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Perth Glory (rating 1452 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Central Coast Mariners: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central Coast Mariners | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.3 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 1.1 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Coast Mariners 2–3–1 Perth Glory
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Perth Glory |
| 10/01/26 Australia A-League | Perth Glory | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 07/11/25 Australia A-League | Perth Glory | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 13/05/25 Australia Cup | Central Coast Mariners | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Perth Glory |
| 30/03/25 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Perth Glory |
| 07/02/25 Australia A-League | Perth Glory | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Sydney FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Auckland FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central Coast Mariners | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Wellington Phoenix | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Newcastle Jets | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Brisbane Roar | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Melbourne City | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Perth Glory (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 01/11 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/10 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
Perth Glory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/11 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 23/10 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/03 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Perth Glory win (41%). Probabilities: Central Coast Mariners 33%, draw 26%, Perth Glory 41%.
How many goals are expected in Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Central Coast Mariners 1.39 · Perth Glory 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.