Football · South Korea Cup · 29/07, 12:00
Prediction: Gwangju FC vs Cheonan City
Team pages: Gwangju FC · Cheonan City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Gwangju FC1.88
Cheonan City1.15
1X2
Gwangju FC
Draw
Cheonan City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gwangju FC
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Cheonan City
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gwangju FC 1421 · Cheonan City 1465
| Gwangju FC | Draw | Cheonan City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cheonan City (rating 1421 vs 1465).
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | Cheonan City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.2 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.4 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 19/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
Cheonan City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Seoul E-Land FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Chungbuk Cheongju South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 15/07 | Mokpo City South Korea Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/07 | Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Gyeongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Suwon FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | Ansan Greeners FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Suwon Bluewings South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Paju Frontier FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Busan I Park South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs Cheonan City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gwangju FC win (53%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 53%, draw 25%, Cheonan City 22%.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Cheonan City?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Gwangju FC 1.88 · Cheonan City 1.15), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Cheonan City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.