Football · South Korea Cup · 29/07, 12:00
Prediction: Ulsan Citizen FC vs Ulsan HD
Team pages: Ulsan Citizen FC · Ulsan HD
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.27Total
Ulsan Citizen FC0.77
Ulsan HD2.49
1X2
Ulsan Citizen FC
Draw
Ulsan HD
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Ulsan Citizen FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Ulsan HD
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ulsan Citizen FC 1510 · Ulsan HD 1493
| Ulsan Citizen FC | Draw | Ulsan HD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 17% | 74% |
| Market | 9% | 16% | 75% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulsan Citizen FC | Ulsan HD | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 1.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulsan Citizen FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 15/07 | Seoul E-Land FC South Korea Cup |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/07 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Chuncheon FC South Korea Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/05 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 11/07 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Ulsan HD?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ulsan HD win (75%). Probabilities: Ulsan Citizen FC 9%, draw 16%, Ulsan HD 75%.
How many goals are expected in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Ulsan HD?
The model expects 3.27 goals (Ulsan Citizen FC 0.77 · Ulsan HD 2.49), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Ulsan HD?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.