Football · Hungary NB III · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: Erdi VSE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi

Team pages: Erdi VSE · Kaposvari Rakoczi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Erdi VSE1.55

Kaposvari Rakoczi2.23

1X2

26% 22% 52%

Erdi VSE Draw Kaposvari Rakoczi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Erdi VSE 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLLDWL

Kaposvari Rakoczi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLLD

Head-to-head

Erdi VSE 1–2–3 Kaposvari Rakoczi (6 last)

Erdi VSE2-1Kaposvari Rakoczi
Kaposvari Rakoczi1-1Erdi VSE
Kaposvari Rakoczi2-2Erdi VSE
Erdi VSE1-2Kaposvari Rakoczi
Erdi VSE1-2Kaposvari Rakoczi
Erdi VSE0-2Kaposvari Rakoczi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erdi VSE 1486 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1558

	Erdi VSE	Draw	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Our model	26%	22%	52%
Market	26%	22%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaposvari Rakoczi (rating 1486 vs 1558).
H2H favours Kaposvari Rakoczi: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erdi VSE	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.4	2.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.00

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +10’	3.50	4.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Erdi VSE 1–2–3 Kaposvari Rakoczi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	2-1 HT 2-0	Kaposvari Rakoczi
02/11/25 Hungary NB III	Kaposvari Rakoczi	1-1 HT 0-1	Erdi VSE
23/08/25 Hungary Cup	Kaposvari Rakoczi	2-2 HT 1-2	Erdi VSE
12/11/23 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	1-2 HT 0-2	Kaposvari Rakoczi
17/08/22 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	1-2 HT 0-1	Kaposvari Rakoczi
01/05/22 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	0-2 HT 0-0	Kaposvari Rakoczi

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	9	8	1	0	28	3	25
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	8	5	1	2	22	11	16
3	Budafoki MTE	8	5	1	2	16	10	16
4	PEAC FC	8	4	3	1	14	8	15
5	BFC Siofok	8	4	2	2	15	9	14
6	Majosi SE	8	4	1	3	17	17	13
7	MTK Budapest II	7	4	0	3	21	12	12
8	Ivancsa	8	4	0	4	17	19	12
9	Ferencvarosi TC II	8	3	3	2	17	13	12
10	Dunaharaszti MTK	9	3	2	4	15	18	11
11	Budaorsi SC	9	3	2	4	16	26	11
12	Erdi VSE	8	2	3	3	18	20	9
13	Sarbogard SE	9	1	2	6	8	20	5
14	Paksi SE II	9	0	3	6	11	22	3
15	Szekszardi	8	0	0	8	3	30	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erdi VSE	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Ferencvarosi TC II	3-3 D	2-2 D
Majosi SE	2-3 L	1-4 L
Pecsi MFC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	1-1 D	4-2 W
Paksi SE II	3-1 W	3-1 W
Budaorsi SC	3-3 D	7-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kaposvari Rakoczi (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erdi VSE

WDDWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-4	–	–	L
19/09	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	3-1	4-3	7	4	W
05/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-2	3-3	8	3	D
30/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
26/08	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
25/07	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
24/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-3	8	7	D
17/05	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	2-0	2-1	–	–	W

Kaposvari Rakoczi

LWWWWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
05/09	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
26/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
12/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
08/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	–	–	W
25/07	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	4-1	6-2	–	–	W
17/05	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erdi VSE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kaposvari Rakoczi win (52%). Probabilities: Erdi VSE 26%, draw 22%, Kaposvari Rakoczi 52%.

How many goals are expected in Erdi VSE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Erdi VSE 1.55 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 2.23), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Erdi VSE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.