Football · Hungary NB III · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: MTK Budapest II vs Kaposvari Rakoczi

Team pages: MTK Budapest II · Kaposvari Rakoczi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

MTK Budapest II1.86

Kaposvari Rakoczi1.83

1X2

39% 23% 38%

MTK Budapest II Draw Kaposvari Rakoczi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

MTK Budapest II 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Kaposvari Rakoczi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

MTK Budapest II 1–1–2 Kaposvari Rakoczi (4 last)

MTK Budapest II1-0Kaposvari Rakoczi
Kaposvari Rakoczi3-2MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II2-3Kaposvari Rakoczi
MTK Budapest II2-2Kaposvari Rakoczi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MTK Budapest II 1508 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1549

	MTK Budapest II	Draw	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Our model	39%	23%	38%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaposvari Rakoczi (rating 1508 vs 1549).
H2H favours Kaposvari Rakoczi: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MTK Budapest II	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.20 → 2.38▲	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +36’	2.50	3.90	2.20
11:57 +19’	2.30▼	3.90	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MTK Budapest II 1–1–2 Kaposvari Rakoczi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	1-0 HT 0-0	Kaposvari Rakoczi
31/08/25 Hungary NB III	Kaposvari Rakoczi	3-2 HT 2-1	MTK Budapest II
01/09/24 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	2-3 HT 1-2	Kaposvari Rakoczi
08/10/23 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	2-2 HT 0-0	Kaposvari Rakoczi

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	12	11	1	0	34	4	34
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	11	7	1	3	31	14	22
3	Ferencvarosi TC II	11	6	3	2	26	15	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	24	20	20
5	Ivancsa	11	6	0	5	26	23	18
6	Majosi SE	11	5	3	3	24	23	18
7	Budafoki MTE	11	5	2	4	21	18	17
8	PEAC FC	11	4	4	3	17	16	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	5	0	5	26	20	15
10	Erdi VSE	11	4	3	4	25	25	15
11	BFC Siofok	11	4	2	5	18	15	14
12	Budaorsi SC	11	3	3	5	17	30	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	1	4	6	20	24	7
14	Sarbogard SE	11	1	2	8	9	31	5
15	Szekszardi	11	0	0	11	5	45	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MTK Budapest II	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Ivancsa	2-5 L	1-0 W
Erdi VSE	3-1 W	1-3 L
Ferencvarosi TC II	0-2 L	2-2 D
Pecsi MFC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	4-2 W	4-2 W
Paksi SE II	4-2 W	3-1 W
Budaorsi SC	0-1 L	7-0 W
Szekszardi	8-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kaposvari Rakoczi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MTK Budapest II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	2-4	2-5	5	1	L
11/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
03/10	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
06/09	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
29/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-1	4-2	3	3	W
15/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
12/08	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
09/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
26/07	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	3-1	4-2	–	–	W

Kaposvari Rakoczi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	4	5	W
10/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
26/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
05/09	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
26/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
12/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
08/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MTK Budapest II vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MTK Budapest II win (39%). Probabilities: MTK Budapest II 39%, draw 23%, Kaposvari Rakoczi 38%.

How many goals are expected in MTK Budapest II vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model expects 3.69 goals (MTK Budapest II 1.86 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1.83), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MTK Budapest II vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.