Football · Hungary NB III · 01/11, 11:00

Prediction: Ujpest II vs Csepel

Team pages: Ujpest II · Csepel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Ujpest II1.98

Csepel1.75

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Ujpest II Draw Csepel

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ujpest II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDLDL

Csepel 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDLDWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ujpest II 1511 · Csepel 1522

	Ujpest II	Draw	Csepel
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ujpest II	Csepel
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	2.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:25 +6’	2.10	3.70	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	13	13	0	0	44	10	39
2	ESMTK	13	9	3	1	35	13	30
3	III Keruleti TUE	13	8	2	3	16	6	26
4	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	13	6	5	2	24	16	23
5	Csepel	13	5	5	3	27	20	20
6	Vasas SC II	13	5	4	4	26	15	19
7	Ujpest II	13	5	4	4	29	20	19
8	FC Dabas	13	4	3	6	18	30	15
9	Monori SE	13	3	6	4	23	24	15
10	Bekescsabai Elore SE	13	3	5	5	19	19	14
11	Szolnoki Mav FC	13	3	5	5	28	31	14
12	Kispest Honved II	13	3	3	7	21	23	12
13	Sandorfalvi SK	13	3	2	8	8	30	11
14	Szegedi VSE	13	2	3	8	18	37	9
15	Hodmezovasarhelyi	13	1	6	6	15	27	9
16	BKV Elore SC	13	2	2	9	14	44	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ujpest II	Csepel
Szolnoki Mav FC	2-1 W	3-2 W
Kispest Honved II	0-3 L	3-1 W
Szegedi VSE	6-1 W	1-1 D
FC Dabas	2-1 W	0-1 L
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	2-2 D	1-1 D
Vasas SC II	5-3 W	0-6 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ujpest II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ujpest II

WDWWLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	ESMTK Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
18/10	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/10	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	11	4	L
03/10	Monori SE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
26/09	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
20/09	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
06/09	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	3-1	6-1	4	3	W
30/08	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
26/08	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	1-2	5-3	–	–	W

Csepel

DWWDLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	2-2	3-2	6	5	W
18/10	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
10/10	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
04/10	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
20/09	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
05/09	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	0	0	D
29/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
26/08	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	3-0	9-1	3	5	W
15/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ujpest II vs Csepel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ujpest II win (43%). Probabilities: Ujpest II 43%, draw 24%, Csepel 33%.

How many goals are expected in Ujpest II vs Csepel?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Ujpest II 1.98 · Csepel 1.75), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ujpest II vs Csepel?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.