Football · Hungary NB III · 15/08, 11:00

Prediction: Paksi SE II vs Ivancsa

Team pages: Paksi SE II · Ivancsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Paksi SE II1.32

Ivancsa1.76

1X2

28% 25% 47%

Paksi SE II Draw Ivancsa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Paksi SE II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLDLD

Ivancsa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDDLWWL

Head-to-head

Paksi SE II 1–2–2 Ivancsa (5 last)

Ivancsa3-0Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II0-3Ivancsa
Paksi SE II0-0Ivancsa
Paksi SE II3-0Ivancsa
Paksi SE II2-2Ivancsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paksi SE II 1441 · Ivancsa 1529

	Paksi SE II	Draw	Ivancsa
Our model	28%	25%	47%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ivancsa (rating 1441 vs 1529).
H2H favours Ivancsa: 2-2-1.
High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paksi SE II	Ivancsa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7	4.5 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +8’	3.20	3.60	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paksi SE II 1–2–2 Ivancsa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Hungary NB III	Ivancsa	3-0 HT 1-0	Paksi SE II
28/09/25 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	0-3 HT 0-1	Ivancsa
06/07/24 Club Friendly List	Paksi SE II	0-0 HT 0-0	Ivancsa
12/09/21 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	3-0 HT 0-0	Ivancsa
14/10/20 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	2-2 HT 1-1	Ivancsa

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kaposvari Rakoczi	3	3	0	0	12	1	9
2	Pecsi MFC	3	3	0	0	11	1	9
3	MTK Budapest II	3	2	0	1	13	4	6
4	Ivancsa	3	2	0	1	8	3	6
5	Budafoki MTE	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
6	PEAC FC	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
7	Erdi VSE	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
8	Ferencvarosi TC II	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
9	Budaorsi SC	3	1	1	1	6	11	4
10	BFC Siofok	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
11	Dunaharaszti MTK	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
12	Paksi SE II	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
13	Majosi SE	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
14	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
15	Sarbogard SE	3	0	0	3	1	9	0
16	Szekszardi	3	0	0	3	0	15	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paksi SE II	Ivancsa
Erdi VSE	1-3 L	1-2 L
Szekszardi	2-3 L	4-0 W
Balatonlelle SE	0-1 L	3-1 W
FC Nagykanizsa	0-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ivancsa (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paksi SE II

LLLLWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-3	1-3	8	4	L
26/07	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	10	4	L
26/04	Balatonlelle SE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
11/04	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Ivancsa

DWLWDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
25/07	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	4-0	11	2	W
24/05	Balatonlelle SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	3	3	W
17/05	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
26/04	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
19/04	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
11/04	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/04	Penzugyor SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paksi SE II vs Ivancsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ivancsa win (47%). Probabilities: Paksi SE II 28%, draw 25%, Ivancsa 47%.

How many goals are expected in Paksi SE II vs Ivancsa?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Paksi SE II 1.32 · Ivancsa 1.76), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Paksi SE II vs Ivancsa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.