Football · Hungary NB III · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Sarbogard SE

Team pages: Kaposvari Rakoczi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Kaposvari Rakoczi2.76

Sarbogard SE0.96

1X2

75% 15% 10%

Kaposvari Rakoczi Draw Sarbogard SE

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Kaposvari Rakoczi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Sarbogard SE 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1549 · Sarbogard SE 1421

	Kaposvari Rakoczi	Draw	Sarbogard SE
Our model	74%	16%	10%
Market	75%	14%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaposvari Rakoczi (rating 1549 vs 1421).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kaposvari Rakoczi	Sarbogard SE
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	1 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.25

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:39 +10’	1.20	6.25	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	10	9	1	0	30	4	28
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	10	6	1	3	24	14	19
3	Ferencvarosi TC II	10	5	3	2	23	14	18
4	Budafoki MTE	10	5	2	3	20	15	17
5	Dunaharaszti MTK	11	5	2	4	21	20	17
6	PEAC FC	10	4	4	2	16	13	16
7	Ivancsa	10	5	0	5	21	21	15
8	Majosi SE	10	4	3	3	21	21	15
9	BFC Siofok	9	4	2	3	16	11	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	4	0	4	21	14	12
11	Erdi VSE	9	3	3	3	21	21	12
12	Budaorsi SC	10	3	3	4	17	27	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	1	4	6	20	24	7
14	Sarbogard SE	10	1	2	7	9	24	5
15	Szekszardi	10	0	0	10	5	42	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kaposvari Rakoczi	Sarbogard SE
Ivancsa	1-0 W	1-4 L
Erdi VSE	1-3 L	3-4 L
Ferencvarosi TC II	2-2 D	0-1 L
Majosi SE	1-4 L	0-3 L
Pecsi MFC	0-1 L	0-6 L
Szekszardi	3-0 W	2-1 W
Budaorsi SC	7-0 W	1-1 D
BFC Siofok	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Kaposvari Rakoczi (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kaposvari Rakoczi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
26/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
05/09	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
26/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
12/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
08/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	–	–	W
25/07	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	2-0	2-1	–	–	W

Sarbogard SE

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-2	1-4	0	4	L
26/09	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	1-3	3-4	4	4	L
05/09	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
26/08	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
12/08	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-2	0-6	–	–	L
08/08	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
26/07	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Sarbogard SE?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kaposvari Rakoczi win (75%). Probabilities: Kaposvari Rakoczi 75%, draw 15%, Sarbogard SE 10%.

How many goals are expected in Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Sarbogard SE?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Kaposvari Rakoczi 2.76 · Sarbogard SE 0.96), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Sarbogard SE?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.