Football · Hungary NB III · 25/10, 13:00

Prediction: ESMTK vs Ujpest II

Team pages: ESMTK · Ujpest II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

ESMTK2.17

Ujpest II1.56

1X2

51% 22% 27%

ESMTK Draw Ujpest II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

ESMTK 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDWWWW

Ujpest II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWDLD

Head-to-head

ESMTK 0–1–0 Ujpest II (1 last)

Ujpest II3-3ESMTK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESMTK 1603 · Ujpest II 1515

	ESMTK	Draw	Ujpest II
Our model	51%	22%	27%
Market	51%	21%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1603 vs 1515).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESMTK	Ujpest II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.9	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.2	3.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.20

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:57 +8’	1.75	4.20	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ESMTK 0–1–0 Ujpest II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/11/20 Hungary NB III	Ujpest II	3-3 HT 2-1	ESMTK

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	13	13	0	0	44	10	39
2	ESMTK	12	8	3	1	33	12	27
3	III Keruleti TUE	13	8	2	3	16	6	26
4	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	13	6	5	2	24	16	23
5	Csepel	13	5	5	3	27	20	20
6	Vasas SC II	13	5	4	4	26	15	19
7	Ujpest II	12	5	4	3	28	18	19
8	FC Dabas	13	4	3	6	18	30	15
9	Monori SE	13	3	6	4	23	24	15
10	Bekescsabai Elore SE	13	3	5	5	19	19	14
11	Szolnoki Mav FC	13	3	5	5	28	31	14
12	Kispest Honved II	13	3	3	7	21	23	12
13	Sandorfalvi SK	13	3	2	8	8	30	11
14	Hodmezovasarhelyi	13	1	6	6	15	27	9
15	BKV Elore SC	12	2	2	8	13	41	8
16	Szegedi VSE	12	1	3	8	15	36	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESMTK	Ujpest II
Szolnoki Mav FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Kispest Honved II	3-0 W	0-3 L
Szegedi VSE	4-1 W	6-1 W
FC Dabas	6-0 W	2-1 W
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	1-1 D	2-2 D
Vasas SC II	2-0 W	5-3 W
Sandorfalvi SK	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ESMTK (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESMTK

LWWDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
11/10	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	12	4	W
03/10	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
27/09	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	3-0	6-0	2	5	W
20/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
26/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/08	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/08	Csepel Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	6	3	L

Ujpest II

LWDWWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/10	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	11	4	L
03/10	Monori SE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
26/09	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
20/09	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
06/09	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	3-1	6-1	4	3	W
30/08	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
26/08	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	1-2	5-3	–	–	W
12/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESMTK vs Ujpest II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESMTK win (51%). Probabilities: ESMTK 51%, draw 22%, Ujpest II 27%.

How many goals are expected in ESMTK vs Ujpest II?

The model expects 3.73 goals (ESMTK 2.17 · Ujpest II 1.56), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ESMTK vs Ujpest II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.