Football · Hungary NB III · 03/10, 11:00

Prediction: Paksi SE II vs Szekszardi

Team pages: Paksi SE II · Szekszardi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Paksi SE II2.56

Szekszardi1.37

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Paksi SE II Draw Szekszardi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Paksi SE II 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLDLL

Szekszardi 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Paksi SE II 2–1–3 Szekszardi (6 last)

Szekszardi3-2Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II4-1Szekszardi
Szekszardi1-0Paksi SE II
Szekszardi1-0Paksi SE II
Szekszardi1-2Paksi SE II
Szekszardi1-1Paksi SE II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paksi SE II 1437 · Szekszardi 1380

	Paksi SE II	Draw	Szekszardi
Our model	62%	19%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paksi SE II (rating 1437 vs 1380).
H2H favours Szekszardi: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paksi SE II	Szekszardi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.5	0.8 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.6	0.4 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/22/67%	10/10/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +3’	1.45	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Paksi SE II 2–1–3 Szekszardi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Hungary NB III	Szekszardi	3-2 HT 2-0	Paksi SE II
09/11/25 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	4-1 HT 3-1	Szekszardi
22/11/23 Hungary NB III	Szekszardi	1-0 HT 1-0	Paksi SE II
13/07/22 Europe Friendlies	Szekszardi	1-0 HT 0-0	Paksi SE II
03/10/21 Hungary NB III	Szekszardi	1-2 HT 0-1	Paksi SE II
16/02/18 Europe Friendlies	Szekszardi	1-1 HT 0-0	Paksi SE II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	9	8	1	0	28	3	25
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	8	5	1	2	22	11	16
3	Budafoki MTE	8	5	1	2	16	10	16
4	PEAC FC	8	4	3	1	14	8	15
5	Majosi SE	8	4	1	3	17	17	13
6	MTK Budapest II	7	4	0	3	21	12	12
7	Ivancsa	8	4	0	4	17	19	12
8	Ferencvarosi TC II	8	3	3	2	17	13	12
9	BFC Siofok	7	3	2	2	12	8	11
10	Dunaharaszti MTK	9	3	2	4	15	18	11
11	Budaorsi SC	9	3	2	4	16	26	11
12	Erdi VSE	8	2	3	3	18	20	9
13	Sarbogard SE	9	1	2	6	8	20	5
14	Paksi SE II	8	0	3	5	10	19	3
15	Szekszardi	8	0	0	8	3	30	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paksi SE II	Szekszardi
BFC Siofok	1-3 L	1-3 L
Budafoki MTE	1-2 L	0-4 L
PEAC FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
MTK Budapest II	2-4 L	0-8 L
Kaposvari Rakoczi	1-3 L	0-3 L
Ivancsa	0-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Paksi SE II (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paksi SE II

LDLDLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	6	7	L
19/09	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/09	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-4	5	3	L
26/08	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
15/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
26/07	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	0-2	2-3	–	–	L

Szekszardi

DWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	1-2	1-5	5	7	L
05/09	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
26/08	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
15/08	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
12/08	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
09/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-8	–	–	L
25/07	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
24/05	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
17/05	Penzugyor SE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	6	11	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paksi SE II vs Szekszardi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paksi SE II win (62%). Probabilities: Paksi SE II 62%, draw 20%, Szekszardi 18%.

How many goals are expected in Paksi SE II vs Szekszardi?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Paksi SE II 2.56 · Szekszardi 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Paksi SE II vs Szekszardi?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.